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The European Union will enter Stage Three of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) in 1999. The development of euro financial markets and thickness externalities in the use of the euro as a means of payment will be the major factors determining the importance of the euro as an international...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472384
This paper characterizes the optimal transaction tax in an equilibrium model of competitive financial markets. As long as investors hold heterogeneous beliefs that are not related to their fundamental trading motives and the planner calculates welfare using any single belief, a strictly positive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481129
During the past decade a number of countries imposed capital controls that had two distinguishing features: they were asymmetric, in that they were designed principally to discourage capital inflows, and they were temporary. This paper studies formally the consequences of these policies,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470297
We report findings from a survey of United States foreign exchange traders. Our results indicate that (i) technical trading best characterizes about 30% of traders, with this proportion rising from five years ago; (ii) news about macroeconomic variables is rapidly incorporated into exchange...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471364
Macroeconomic models of nominal exchange rates perform poorly. In sample, R2 statistics as high as 10 percent are rare. Out of sample, these models are typically out-forecast by a na‹ve random walk. This paper presents a model of a new kind. Instead of relying exclusively on macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471467
This paper, written as a chapter for a Handbook of International Economics, reviews developments in the theory of … of exchange rate theory, starting with the monetary approach to exchange rate determination. Issues discussed in this … framework that views the question of exchange rate determination as part of the general theory of the determination of asset …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477808
This paper develops a stochastic equilibrium model of an open economy incorporating speculation in the forward exchange market. The model is used to examine two issues. The first is the role of speculation in stabilizing the economy against stochastic disturbances. Much risk averse speculation...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477963
Many models of exchange rate determination imply that movements in money supplies and demands should result in movements in exchange rates. Hence, if rational agents are attempting to forecast exchange rate movements, they should in the first instance forecast movements in the supplies of and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478248
A number of recent empirical studies have rejected the hypothesis that forward exchange rates are unbiased forecasts of future spot exchange rates. This result implies that there have been opportunities for speculative profit during the post Bretton Woods period. Observers of the floating rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478457
This paper develops a dynamic partial equilibrium model of the foreign exchange market extending the standard textbook model in two respects. First, capital account transactions are explicitly incorporated into the model, and secondly, 'rational' speculative behaviour is also introduced. At a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478477