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This paper specifies and estimates a structural dynamic stochastic model of the way individuals make retirement and saving choices in an uncertain world, and applies that model to analyze the effects of the stock market bubble on retirement behavior. The model includes individual variation both...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469299
This paper presents a stylized model of international trade and asset price bubbles. Its central insight is that … bubbles tend to appear and expand in countries where productivity is low relative to the rest of the world. These bubbles … productivity countries. Through this channel, bubbles act as substitute for international capital flows, improving the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469402
The link between monetary policy and asset price movements has been of perennial interest to policy makers. In this paper we consider the potential case for pre-emptive monetary restrictions when asset price reversals can have serious effects on real output. First, we provide some historical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469748
We explore the implications of asset price volatility for the management of monetary policy. We show that it is desirable for central banks to focus on underlying inflationary pressures. Asset prices become relevant only to the extent they may signal potential inflationary or deflationary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471216
There has been a long-running debate about whether stock market prices are determined by fundamentals. To date no consensus has been reached. An important issue in this debate concerns the circumstances in which deviations from fundamentals are consistent with rational behavior. A...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475283
type of rational bubble that depends exclusively on dividends. We call such bubbles "intrinsic" bubbles because they derive … examples of rational bubbles, intrinsic bubbles provide an empirically plausible account of deviations from present …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475954
not valid in general: as soon as bubbles affect interest rates, the fundamental value of a stock depends on whether or not …-bubble price. Under conditions made precise below, there can therefore be price decreasing bubbles, and an asset can be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476236
and Porter (1981) and Shiller (1981a). It appears that neither small sample bias, rational bubbles nor some standard …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476489
estimated in two ways. One may test for speculative bubbles, or fads, by testing whether the two estimates are the same. When … the test is applied to some annual U.S. stock market data, the data usually reject the null hypothesis of no bubbles. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477002
bubbles in stock prices in a model in which stockholders have …rules out the existence of negative rational bubbles. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477082