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Where Have All the Workers Gone? Recalls, Retirements, and Reallocation in the COVID Recovery

Forsythe, Eliza; Kahn, Lisa B.; Lange, Fabian; Wiczer, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

At the onset of the COVID pandemic, the U.S. economy suddenly and swiftly lost 20 million jobs. Over the next two years, the economy has been on the recovery path. We assess the labor market two years into the COVID crisis. We show that early employment dynamics were almost entirely driven by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362041

Bonus Question : Does Flexible Incentive Pay Dampen Unemployment Dynamics?

Gaur, Meghana; Grigsby, John R.; Hazell, Jonathon; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We introduce dynamic incentive contracts into a model of unemployment dynamics and present three results. First, wage cyclicality from incentives does not dampen unemployment dynamics: the response of unemployment to shocks is first-order equivalent in an economy with flexible incentive pay and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014372479

Spending and Job-Finding Impacts of Expanded Unemployment Benefits : Evidence from Administrative Micro Data

Ganong, Peter; Greig, Fiona E.; Noel, Pascal J.; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We show that the largest increase in unemployment benefits in U.S. history had large spending impacts and small job-finding impacts. This finding has three implications. First, increased benefits were important for explaining aggregate spending dynamics--but not employment dynamics--during the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013361970

Modeling Migration-Induced Unemployment

Michaillat, Pascal - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

-migration helps firms fill vacancies more easily, boosting their profits. The overall impact of in-migration on local welfare varies …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015094889

Labor Market Anatomy of a Macroeconomic Crisis

Donovan, Kevin; Lu, Jianyu; Pedtke, Joseph H.; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

This paper uses two large datasets built from quarterly labor force surveys to provide a global perspective on labor market downturns. The distribution of the severity and duration of labor market downturns is strongly right skewed. The longest and most severe downturns are associated with...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015094903

u* = √uv

Michaillat, Pascal; Saez, Emmanuel - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

vacancies, u + v. Through the Beveridge curve, the number of vacancies is inversely related to the number of jobseekers. With … such symmetry, the labor market is efficient when there are as many jobseekers as vacancies (u = v), too tight when there … are more vacancies than jobseekers (v > u), and too slack when there are more jobseekers than vacancies (u > v …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334429

Heterogeneous Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity : Foundations of a Static Wage Phillips Curve

Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie; Uribe, Martín - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We introduce a form of downward nominal wage rigidity that can vary in intensity across a continuum of labor varieties. The model delivers a static wage Phillips curve linking current wage inflation to current unemployment. For standard parameterizations, the dynamics of the model are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013477266

State Dependent Government Spending Multipliers : Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity and Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations

Jo, Yoon; Zubairy, Sarah - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We consider a New Keynesian model with downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR) and show that government spending is much more effective in stimulating output in a low-inflation recession relative to a high-inflation recession. The government spending multiplier is large when DNWR binds, but the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210053

Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Response of Labor Migration to Economic Shocks

Foschi, Andrea; House, Christopher L.; Proebsting, Christian - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2025

We examine the responsiveness of labor participation, unemployment and labor migration to exogenous variations in labor demand. Our empirical approach considers four instruments for regional labor demand commonly used in the literature. Empirically, we find that labor migration is a significant...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015409786

Temporary Layoffs, Loss-of-Recall and Cyclical Unemployment Dynamics

Gertler, Mark; Huckfeldt, Christopher K.; Trigari, Antonella - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

present. While many have emphasized a stabilizing effect due to recall hiring, we quantify an important destabilizing effect …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334353