/U.K. (1629-1812), U.K. (1813-1870) and U.S. (1871-2015). We show that dividend yields are stationary and consistently forecast …

distribution of earnings surprises, the market's response to surprises and forecast revisions, and in the predictability of non …

firms and often issue several forecasts in a single day. We find that forecast accuracy declines over the course of a day as … closely with the consensus forecast, by self-herding (i.e., reissuing their own previous outstanding forecasts), and by … issuing a rounded forecast. Finally, we find that the stock market understands these effects and discounts for analyst …

not observed at the time that the forecast is made--but can nonetheless improve forecasting accuracy by reducing parameter … of forecasting excess bond and equity returns. We find substantial improvements in out-of-sample forecast accuracy for …

volatility forecast, coupled with a parametric lognormal-normal mixture distribution implied by the theoretically and empirically …