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A growing literature uses now widely-available data on beliefs and expectations in the estimation of structural models. In this chapter, we review this literature, with an emphasis on models of individual and household behavior. We first show how expectations data have been used to relax strong...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210122
We study information acquisition and dynamic withdrawal decisions when a spreading rumor exposes a solvent bank to a run. Uncertainty about the bank's liquidity and potential failure motivates depositors who hear the rumor to acquire additional noisy signals. Depositors with less informative...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460148
react. Using tax policies as a leading example of foresight, simple theory makes transparent the economic behavior and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461706
In over-the-counter (OTC) markets, customers search for counterparties. Little is known about this process, however, because existing data is comprised of transaction records, which are only informative about the end of a successful search. Leveraging data from the leading trading platform for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014437035
We analyze the extent to which simple markets can be used to aggregate disperse information into efficient forecasts of uncertain future events. Drawing together data from a range of prediction contexts, we show that market-generated forecasts are typically fairly accurate, and that they...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468189
Participants in prediction markets such as the Iowa Electronic Markets trade all-or-nothing contracts that pay a dollar if and only if specified future events occur. Researchers engaged in empirical study of prediction markets have argued broadly that equilibrium prices of the contracts traded...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468334
We study how negative sentiment around an industry impacts beliefs and behaviors, focusing on demands for racial justice after the murder of George Floyd and the salience of the "defund the police" movement. We assess stakeholder beliefs on the impact of protests on the stock prices of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635693
mortality if and only if mortality risk is convex in forecast errors. We test for such convexity using data on the universe of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322749
Prediction markets--markets used to forecast future events--have been used to accurately forecast the outcome of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460438
of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466468