history of the asset in question. A hypothetical insurance market is set up, where competing forecasting algorithms are used …. One algorithm is used by each hypothetical agent in an "ex post ante" forecasting exercise, using the available history of … forecasting algorithms …

criticized for being nonrobust when adjusted for serial correlation. Moreover, the forecasting power of these aggregative … incorporate key demographic restrictions and when they are properly aggregated, they have considerable forecasting power …

We consider the problem of short-term time series forecasting (nowcasting) when there are more possible predictors than …

bank risk taking, commercial bank failure, interest rates on loans, and market structure. We propose a market structure …We develop a model of banking industry dynamics to study the quantitative impact of capital requirements on equilibrium … addition to aggregate shocks to the fraction of performing loans in their portfolio. A nontrivial bank size distribution arises …

We show that maturity transformation does not expose banks to significant interest rate risk--it actually hedges banks …' interest rate risk. We argue that this is driven by banks' deposit franchise. Banks incur large operating costs to maintain …. Our results imply that forcing banks to hold only short-term assets ("narrow banking") would make banks unhedged and, more …