Using a new survey of French firms' inflation expectations that predates the inflation spike, we document i) evidence … on the anchoring of inflation expectations during the inflation surge, and ii) the relevance of inflation expectations … for firms' decisions. First, we show that inflation expectations under-responded to the initial surge but then …

This paper studies the response of household inflation expectations to television news coverage of inflation. We … analyze news data from CNN, Fox News, and MSNBC alongside a daily measure of inflation expectations. Using a local projection … instrumental variables approach, we estimate the dynamic causal effect of inflation news coverage on household inflation …

This paper shows the key, yet overlooked, role played by the legacy of a high inflation history on the strength of the … credibility. We show that achieving low inflation (hitting the target) requires more aggressive monetary policy reactions, and is … costlier from an output point of view, when individuals' past inflationary experiences shape their inflation expectation …

-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a … breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years … unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since …

This paper examines the recent behavior of core inflation in the United States. We specify a simple Phillips curve … based on the assumptions that inflation expectations are fully anchored at the Federal Reserve's target, and that labor …-market slack is captured by the level of short-term unemployment. This equation explains inflation behavior since 2000, including …

appointment of Volcker marked a change in the conduct of monetary policy, but inflation dropped only when fiscal policy … accommodated this change two years later. In fact, a disinflationary attempt of the monetary authority leads to more inflation if … been confident about the switch, the Great Inflation would not have occurred and debt would have been higher. This is …

If inflation expectations become firmly anchored at the inflation target even when average inflation deviates from the … target, the long-run Phillips curve becomes non-vertical. During 1997-2011, average inflation expectations in Sweden have … been close to the inflation target of 2 percent, whereas average inflation has fallen short of the target by 0.6 percentage …

We propose a new approach to constructing inflation tracking portfolios. The key to this approach is the insight that … asset returns track expected inflation far better than they track current realized inflation. Thus, we can construct … portfolios that track next month's inflation much more closely than they track this month's inflation. We show this staggered …

This paper documents the evolution of long-run inflation expectations and models the stance of monetary policy from … 1965 to 1980. A host of survey-based measures and financial market data indicate that long-run inflation expectations rose … with a constant inflation goal, our analysis indicates that the path of policy can be characterized by a reaction function …

to the fact that both bond and equity yields commove strongly and positively with expected inflation. While inflation … commoves with nominal bond yields for well-known reasons, the positive correlation between expected inflation and equity yields … uncertainty about real growth prospects and habit -- based risk version. In the US, high expected inflation has tended to …