role of secondary markets in providing opportunities for redistributing risk is made transparent and the modifications …

risk sharing. Higher uncertainty increases stock prices, risk premiums, volatility, wealth inequality and the dispersion of …I characterize a dynamic economy under general distributions of households' risk tolerance, endowments, and beliefs … consumption-share increases; (b) the wealth-share of high risk-tolerant households increases; (c) richer households' wealth …

This paper introduces a formal definition and an experimental measurement of the concept of cognitive uncertainty …: people's subjective uncertainty about what the optimal action is. This concept allows us to bring together and partially … explain a set of behavioral anomalies identified across four distinct domains of decision-making: choice under risk, choice …

shocks to aggregate uncertainty, I introduce a small, time-varying risk of economic disaster in a standard real business … probability of disaster leads to a collapse of investment and a recession, an increase in risk spreads, and a decrease in the … cycle model. The paper establishes two simple theoretical results: first, when the probability of disaster is constant, the …

the present value of the flow of social benefits minus costs. But the real world is one of considerable uncertainty … discount rates that should be used to compute present values. The implications of uncertainty are complicated by the fact that … horizons. Correctly incorporating uncertainty in policy design is therefore one of the more interesting and important research …

The theoretical relationship between investment and uncertainty is ambiguous. This paper briefly surveys the insights … that theory has to offer and then runs a series of simple tests aimed at evaluating the empirical significance of various … theoretical effects. Our results from a panel of U.S. manufacturing firms indicate a negative effect of uncertainty on investment …

equilibrium model with a fund offering the risk-adjusted market portfolio (RAMP), ambiguity averse investors hold the fund and an … optimal portfolio based on only one information source (price versus private signal). Asset risk premia satisfy the CAPM with …

Uncertainty is a ubiquitous concern emphasized by policymakers. We study how uncertainty affects decision-making by the … Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). We distinguish between the notion of Fed-managed uncertainty vis-a-vis uncertainty that …-managed uncertainty introduces a wedge between the standard Taylor-type policy rule and the optimal decision. Using private Fed …

expansion appears to be the source of Kuska's erroneous indictment of "Keynesian" balance-of-payments theory.We also establish …