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Measuring Uncertainty about Long-Run Prediction
Mueller, Ulrich - 2013
Long-run forecasts of economic variables play an important role in policy, planning, and portfolio decisions. We consider long-horizon forecasts of average growth of a scalar variable, assuming that first differences are second-order stationary. The main contribution is the construction of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459791
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Disasters Risk and Business Cycles
Gourio, François - 2009
shocks to aggregate uncertainty, I introduce a small, time-varying risk of economic disaster in a standard real business … risk of disaster does not affect the path of macroeconomic aggregates - a "separation theorem" between macroeconomic … variation in risk premia over time, are observationally equivalent to preference shocks. An increase in the perceived …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463250
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Policymakers' Uncertainty
Cieślak, Anna; Hansen, Stephen; McMahon, Michael; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
Uncertainty is a ubiquitous concern emphasized by policymakers. We study how uncertainty affects decision-making by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). We distinguish between the notion of Fed-managed uncertainty vis-a-vis uncertainty that emanates from within the economy and which the Fed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014436980
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Technology (and Policy) Shocks in Models of Endogenous Growth
Jones, Larry E. - 1999
Is there a trade-off between fluctuations and growth? The empirical evidence is mixed, with some studies (Kormendi and Meguire (1985)) finding a positive relationship, while others (Ramey and Ramey (1995)) finding the a negative one. Our objective in this paper is to understand how fundamental...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471733
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Hedging Macroeconomic and Financial Uncertainty and Volatility
Dew-Becker, Ian - 2019
a simple extension of the long-run risk model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480268
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The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Firm Decisions
Kumar, Saten; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Coibion, Olivier - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
Using a new survey of firms in New Zealand, we document how exogenous variation in the macroeconomic uncertainty perceived by firms affects their economic decisions. We use randomized information treatments that provide different types of information about the first and/or second moments of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334505
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Cost of Capital for the United States, Japan, and Canada : An Attempt at Measurement Based on Individual Company Records and Aggregate National Acccoun
Ando, Albert - 1997
countries such as the US, Canada, and Japan. Attempts are made to carry out the measurement based both on the accounting records …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472944
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Pandemic-Era Uncertainty
Meyer, Brent H.; Mihaylov, Emil; Barrero, Jose Maria; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
national security as of March 2022. Fourth, firm-level risk perceptions skewed heavily to the downside in spring 2020 but …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191053
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Misconduct in Credence Good Markets
Brown, Jennifer - 2012
We examine misconduct in credence good markets with price taking experts. We propose a market-level model in which … price-taking experts extract surplus based on the value of their firm's brand and their own skill. We test the predictions … independent experts, despite doing substantially less business. In addition, more experienced experts attract more complaints per …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460054
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The Economics of Walking About and Predicting US Downturns
Blanchflower, David G.; Bryson, Alex - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
Economic shocks are notoriously difficult to predict but recent research suggests qualitative metrics about economic actors' expectations are predictive of downturns. We show consumer expectations indices from both the Conference Board and the University of Michigan predict economic downturns up...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660050