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Cables, Sharks and Servers : Technology and the Geography of the Foreign Exchange Market

Eichengreen, Barry - 2016

We analyze the impact of technology on production and trade in services, focusing on the foreign exchange market. We …. Our estimates suggest that the second effect dominates. Technology dampens the impact of spatial frictions by up to 80 … percent and increases, in net terms, the share of offshore trading by 21 percentage points. Technology also has economically …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456788

From Carry Trades to Trade Credit : Financial Intermediation by Non-Financial Corporations

Hardy, Bryan; Saffie, Felipe - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We use unique firm-level data from Mexico to document that non-financial corporations engage in carry trades by borrowing in foreign currency (FX) and lending in domestic currency, largely in the form of trade credit, accumulating currency risk in the process. We show at a quarterly frequency...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250200

Sovereign Haircuts : 200 Years of Creditor Losses

Luckner, Clemens von <Graf>; Meyer, Josefin; Reinhart, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024

We study sovereign external debt crises over the past 200 years, with a focus on creditor losses, or "haircuts". Our sample covers 327 sovereign debt restructurings with external private creditors over 205 default spells since 1815. Creditor losses vary widely (from none to 100%), but the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576628

Real Exchange Rate and International Reserves in the Era of Financial Integration

Aizenman, Joshua; Ho, Sy Hoa; Luu Duc Toan Huynh; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

The global financial crisis has brought increased attention to the consequences of international reserves holdings. In an era of high financial integration, we investigate the relationship between the real exchange rate and international reserves using nonlinear regressions and panel threshold...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013537783

Do Foreign Yield Curves Predict U.S. Recessions and GDP Growth?

Ahmed, Rashad; Chinn, Menzie David - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

This paper shows that foreign term spreads constructed from bond yields of non-U.S. G-7 constituents predict future U.S. recessions and that foreign term spreads are stronger predictors of U.S. recessions occurring within the next year than U.S. term spreads. U.S. and foreign term spreads are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013477229

A Theory of Gross and Net Capital Flows over the Global Financial Cycle

Davis, Scott; Van Wincoop, Eric - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022

We develop a theory to account for changes in gross and net capital flows over the global financial cycle (GFC). The theory relies critically on portfolio heterogeneity among investors within and across countries, related to risky portfolio shares and portfolio shares allocated to foreign...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013477230

Global Liquidity : Drivers, Volatility and Toolkits

Goldberg, Linda S. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

Global liquidity refers to the volumes of financial flows - largely intermediated through global banks and non-bank financial institutions - that can move at relatively high frequencies across borders. The amplitude of responses to global conditions like risk sentiment, discussed in the context...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322743

Credit Allocation and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

Mueller, Karsten; Verner, Emil - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We study the relationship between credit expansions, macroeconomic fluctuations, and financial crises using a novel database on the sectoral distribution of private credit for 117 countries since 1940. We document that, during credit booms, credit flows disproportionately to the non-tradable...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322807

Measuring Financial Integration : More Data, More Countries, More Expectations

Chinn, Menzie David; Itō, Hiro - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

We assess market mediated financial integration over the last fifty years. We first systematically lay out several definitions of financial integration, and then review the evidence regarding whether covered interest parity, uncovered interest parity, and real interest parity hold across...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322892

The Impact of Bretton Woods International Capital Controls on the Global Economy and the Value of Geopolitical Stability : A General Equilibrium Analysis

Ohanian, Lee E.; Restrepo-Echavarria, Paulina; Van … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023

This paper quantifies the positive and normative impact of Bretton Woods capital controls on global and regional economic activity. A three-region DSGE capital flows accounting framework consisting of the U.S., Western Europe, and the Rest of the World (ROW) is developed to quantify capital...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337829

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