lotteries, based on other evidence regarding numerical cognition, and test its ability to explain the choice frequencies that we … observe in a laboratory experiment …

under ambiguity, belief updating, and survey expectations about economic variables. In each of these domains, behavior in …. Building on existing models of noisy Bayesian cognition, we formally propose that cognitive uncertainty generates these … risk and ambiguity, belief updating, and survey expectations. Our framework makes predictions that we test using exogenous …

perspective of economists in other subdisciplines. We argue that the historical natural experiment represents a methodological …