Forecasting using `diffusion indices' has received a good deal of attention in recent years. The idea is to use the … common factors estimated from a large panel of data to help forecast the series of interest. This paper assesses the extent … method stands out to have smaller forecast errors. This method forecasts the series of interest directly, rather than the …

Pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of DSGE models with and without financial frictions … environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other methods of density forecast combination, such as …

areas of India, and that farmers respond more strongly to the forecast where there is more forecast skill and not at all … when there is no skill. We show, using an IV strategy in which the Indian government forecast of monsoon rainfall serves as … compared with farmers without access to forecasts. Even modest improvements in forecast skill would substantially increase …

forecast. In a stylized data generating process, we show that such forecasts can be effective even if there is essentially no … rates against 17 OECD countries. We forecast using factors, and using factors combined with any of fundamentals suggested by … improve on the forecast of a "no change" benchmark in the late (1999-2007) but not early (1987-1998) parts of our sample …

not observed at the time that the forecast is made--but can nonetheless improve forecasting accuracy by reducing parameter … of forecasting excess bond and equity returns. We find substantial improvements in out-of-sample forecast accuracy for … price movements around macroeconomic news announcements. These "surprises" cannot be used directly in forecasting--they are …