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Using Neural Networks to Predict Micro-Spatial Economic Growth
Khachiyan, Arman; Thomas, Anthony; Zhou, Huye; Hanson, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
We apply deep learning to daytime satellite imagery to predict changes in income and population at high spatial resolution in US data. For grid cells with lateral dimensions of 1.2km and 2.4km (where the average US county has dimension of 55.6km), our model predictions achieve R2 values of 0.85...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794597
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A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series
Stock, James H. - 1998
A forecasting comparison is undertaken in which 49 univariate forecasting methods, plus various forecast pooling … procedures, are used to forecast 215 U.S. monthly macroeconomic time series at three forecasting horizons over the period 1959 … - 1996. All forecasts simulate real time implementation, that is, they are fully recursive. The forecasting methods are based …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472204
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Financial Machine Learning
Kelly, Bryan T.; Xiu, Dacheng - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We survey the nascent literature on machine learning in the study of financial markets. We highlight the best examples of what this line of research has to offer and recommend promising directions for future research. This survey is designed for both financial economists interested in grasping...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322889
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The Technological Elements of Artificial Intelligence
Taddy, Matt - 2018
We have seen in the past decade a sharp increase in the extent that companies use data to optimize their businesses. Variously called the `Big Data' or `Data Science' revolution, this has been characterized by massive amounts of data, including unstructured and nontraditional data like text and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453413
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Using Neural Data to Test a Theory of Investor Behavior : An Application to Realization Utility
Frydman, Cary - 2012
utility" theory of investor behavior, which posits that people derive utility directly from the act of realizing gains and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460098
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Global Energy Outlook 2015
Newell, Richard G. - 2016
This paper assesses trends in the global energy sector through 2040 by harmonizing multiple projections issued by private, government, and inter-governmental organizations based on methods from "Global Energy Outlooks Comparison: Methods and Challenges" (Newell and Qian 2015). These projections...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456599
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How Will Energy Demand Develop in the Developing World?
Wolfram, Catherine - 2012
Most of the medium-run growth in energy demand is forecast to come from the developing world, which consumed more total units of energy than the developed world in 2007. We argue that the main driver of the growth is likely to be increased incomes among the poor and near-poor. We document that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460912
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Machine-Learning the Skill of Mutual Fund Managers
Kaniel, Ron; Lin, Zihan; Pelger, Markus; Nieuwerburgh, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
We show, using machine learning, that fund characteristics can consistently differentiate high from low-performing mutual funds, as well as identify funds with net-of-fees abnormal returns. Fund momentum and fund flow are the most important predictors of future risk-adjusted fund performance,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012938692
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Selecting Directors Using Machine Learning
Erel, Isil - 2018
Can an algorithm assist firms in their hiring decisions of corporate directors? This paper proposes a method of selecting boards of directors that relies on machine learning. We develop algorithms with the goal of selecting directors that would be preferred by the shareholders of a particular...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453279
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Inequality and the Zero Lower Bound
Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Marbet, Joël; Nuño, Galo; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
This paper studies how household inequality shapes the effects of the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates on aggregate dynamics. To do so, we consider a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian (HANK) model with an occasionally binding ZLB and solve for its fully non-linear stochastic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287383