Showing 1 - 10 of 2,112
We study the effects of uncertainty on time use and their macroeconomic implications. Employing data from the American … Time Use Survey and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we document that heightened uncertainty increases housework and reduces …. However, it also reduces aggregate demand, ultimately amplifying uncertainty's recessionary impact. Time reallocation can lead …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014447275
In this paper we use the functional vector autoregression (VAR) framework of Chang, Chen, and Schorfheide (2024) to study the effects of monetary policy shocks (conventional and informational) on the cross-sectional distribution of U.S. earnings (from the Current Population Survey), consumption,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486257
uncertainty. The results dictate the role of uncertainty and volatility in structural models and we show they are consistent with …We study the pricing of uncertainty shocks using a wide-ranging set of options that reveal premia for macroeconomic … risks. Portfolios hedging macro uncertainty have historically earned zero or even significantly positive returns, while …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480268
realization of volatility, rather than uncertainty about the future, that has been associated with declines …We provide evidence on the relationship between aggregate uncertainty and the macroeconomy. Identifying uncertainty … shocks using methods from the news shocks literature, the analysis finds that innovations in realized stock market volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453915
their empirical counterparts. Our findings suggest that time-varying disaster risk and the many types of uncertainty shocks …Various types of uncertainty shocks can explain many phenomena in macroeconomics and finance. But does this just amount … three conceptually distinct fluctuations, all called uncertainty shocks, have a common origin. Specifically, we propose a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456293
. The outcome is a term structure of macroeconomic uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456312
This review article tries to answer four questions: (i) what are the stylized facts about uncertainty over time; (ii …) why does uncertainty vary; (iii) do fluctuations in uncertainty matter; and (iv) did higher uncertainty worsen the Great … Recession of 2007-2009? On the first question both macro and micro uncertainty appears to rise sharply in recessions. On the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458949
growth and real exchange rate changes, a key measure of international risk-sharing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461368
We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247995
Disparity between control and ownership rights gives rise to the risk of tunneling by the controlling shareholder, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464925