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countries rose from 4 to 23 percent of the U.S. capital stock (financial globalization). We document that the correlation of … real shocks between the U.S. and the rest of the world has declined. We then present a model in which international …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469415
Governments tend to increase their borrowing at the same time, giving rise to a global fiscal cycle. This global fiscal cycle has a large component that is unexplained by global business cycle variables. We propose a novel explanation for the emergence of the global fiscal cycle: governments'...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056167
periphery countries in booms, with larger credit and output growth in periphery countries. However, a common global shock that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012533383
intratemporal relative price such as the terms of trade and possibly an intertemporal price such as the world interest rate. This … paper presents an empirical framework in which multiple commodity prices and the world interest rate transmit world … disturbances. Estimates on a panel of 138 countries over the period 1960-2015 indicate that world shocks explain on average 33 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455847
globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464278
cyclical pattern. Over that cycle, world asset prices, leverage, and capital flows move in concert with global growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247924
We identify the timing of currency, banking crises and sudden stops in New Zealand from 1880 to 2008, and consider the extent to which empirical models can explain New Zealand's crisis history. We find that the cross country evidence on the determinants of crises fits New Zealand experience...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462626
monetary policy shocks on a sample group of EMEs. A contractionary monetary shock leads a retrenchment in EME capital flows, a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456933
shocks using methods from the news shocks literature, the analysis finds that innovations in realized stock market volatility … economy. Moreover, investors have historically paid large premia to hedge shocks to realized but not implied volatility. A … model in which fundamental shocks are skewed left can match those facts. Aggregate volatility matters, but it is the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453915
Most empirical analyses of monetary policy have been confined to frameworks in which the Federal Reserve is implicitly assumed to exploit only a limited amount of information, despite the fact that the Fed actively monitors literally thousands of economic time series. This article explores the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470341