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We characterize the joint dynamics of dividends, expected returns, stochastic volatility, and prices. In particular …, with a given dividend process, one of the processes of the expected return, the stock volatility, or the price …-dividend ratio fully determines the other two. For example, together with dividends, the stock volatility process fully determines …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465813
We establish an empirical link between the ex-ante uncertainty about macroeconomic fundamentals and the ex-post resolution of this uncertainty in financial markets. We measure macroeconomic uncertainty using prices of economic derivatives and relate this measure to changes in implied...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466398
This paper examines the economic environments in which past U.S. stock market booms occurred as a first step toward understanding how asset price booms come about and whether monetary policy should be used to defuse booms. We identify several episodes of sustained rapid rise in equity prices in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467986
increase in total volatility led to a significant increase in market risk (beta) for the multinational firms relative to the … the relation between exchange rate variability and stock return volatility and by decomposing this relation into … components of systematic and diversifiable risk. Focusing on two periods around the 1973 switch from fixed to floating exchange …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473547
idiosyncratic stock market volatility, on individual outcomes. We find that firms provide at best partial insurance to their workers …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481194
stance. When decomposing the VIX into two components, a proxy for risk aversion and expected stock market volatility …The VIX, the stock market option-based implied volatility, strongly co-moves with measures of the monetary policy … ("uncertainty"), we find that a lax monetary policy decreases both risk aversion and uncertainty, with the former effect being …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462259
It appears that volatility in equity markets is asymmetric: returns and conditional volatility are negatively … correlated. We provide a unified framework to simultaneously investigate asymmetric volatility at the firm and the market level … and to examine two potential explanations of the asymmetry: leverage effects and time-varying risk premiums. Our empirical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472796
market's poor performance during the 1970's can be explained by volatility-induced increases in risk premia …This paper examines the potential influence of changing volatility in stock market prices on the level of stock market … prices. It demonstrates that volatility is only weakly serially correlated, implying that shocks to volatility do not persist …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477626
We create a newspaper-based Equity Market Volatility (EMV) tracker that moves with the VIX and with the realized … volatility of returns on the S&P 500. Parsing the underlying text, we find that 72 percent of EMV articles discuss the … Macroeconomic Outlook, and 44 percent discuss Commodity Markets. Policy news is another major source of volatility: 35 percent of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479671
) levels of volatility. These results provide a novel perspective on both the equity risk premium and excess volatility puzzles …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481562