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After decades of rising global economic integration, the world economy is now fragmenting. To measure this phenomenon …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576667
environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other methods of density forecast combination, such as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458090
, mostly from the world of corporate business and finance -- executives, analysts, economic consultants, also some government … and autocorrelation of error. The marginal forecast errors tend to increase, and the correlations between predictions and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478266
models when measured by root mean square errors, especially over long-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456277
of the World (ROW) is developed to quantify capital controls and evaluate their impact on the world economy. We find … these controls had large effects. Counterfactual analysis show world output would have been 0:5 percent higher had there …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337829
geopolitical factors. Using data on foreign reserves of 19 countries before World War I, for which the currency composition of … hypothetical scenario where the U.S. withdraws from the world, our estimates suggest that long-term U.S. interest rates could rise …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453568
Data on global trade as well as capital and labor flows indicate a slowdown, but not reversal, of globalization post the 2008-09 financial crisis. Yet profound changes in the policy environment and public sentiment in the largest economies over the past five years suggest the beginning of a new...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250133
model uniformly outperforms the random walk forecast …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466184
Aggregate and sectoral comovement are central features of business cycle data. Therefore, the ability to generate comovement is a natural litmus test for macroeconomic models. But it is a test that most existing models fail. In this paper we propose a unified model that generates both aggregate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466128
The prospects for a revival of nuclear power were dim even before the partial reactor meltdowns at the Fukushima nuclear plant. Nuclear power has long been controversial because of concerns about nuclear accidents, proliferation risk, and the storage of spent fuel. These concerns are real and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460983