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growth rate and volatility of commodity spot prices. This view gained credence because in the 2000s trading volume increased …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453945
We conduct a comprehensive analysis of unspanned stochastic volatility in commodity markets in general and the crude …-oil market in particular. We present model-free results that strongly suggest the presence of unspanned stochastic volatility in … stochastic volatility. The model features correlations between innovations to futures prices and volatility, quasi …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465916
We use variance decompositions from high-dimensional vector autoregressions to characterize connectedness in 19 key commodity return volatilities, 2011-2016. We study both static (full-sample) and dynamic (rolling-sample) connectedness. We summarize and visualize the results using tools from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012454997
The large inflow of investment capital to commodity futures markets in the last decade has generated a heated debate about whether financialization distorts commodity prices. Rather than focusing on the opposing views concerning whether investment flows either did or did not cause a price...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459020
, including influential studies identifying price bubbles in periods of high volatility. Here we consider a model of the market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459625
Motivated by the literature on limits-to-arbitrage, we build an equilibrium model of commodity markets in which speculators are capital constrained, and commodity producers have hedging demands for commodity futures. Increases (decreases) in producers' hedging demand (speculators' risk-capacity)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461784
domestic welfare through two channels. First, by reducing export income volatility and allowing for a smoother consumption path …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463197
If commercial producers or financial investors use futures contracts to hedge against commodity price risk, the arbitrageurs who take the other side of the contracts may receive compensation for their assumption of nondiversifiable risk in the form of positive expected returns from their...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459606
level of the fundamentals. Though volatility shocks could be important too, their propagating mechanism is still not well … can separate the level factors from the volatility factors and assess their relative importance without directly … estimating the volatility processes. This is made possible by exploiting features in the second order approximation of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455010
the spot volatility extracted from the options and the one obtained nonparametrically from high-frequency data on the … underlying asset. We further construct new formal tests of the model fit for specific regions of the volatility surface and for … index options we extend the popular double-jump stochastic volatility model to allow for time-varying jump risk premia and a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460613