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A growing body of evidence finds that policy reaction functions vary substantially over different periods in the United States. This paper explores how moving to an environment in which monetary and fiscal regimes evolve according to a Markov process can change the impacts of policy shocks. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468331
What are the statistical and computational problems associated with robust nonlinear regression? This paper presents a number of possible approaches to these problems and develops a particular algorithm based on the work of Powell and Dennis
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479050
estimation bandwidth shrinking even as the sample size increases. Second, estimates may be biased if the time-series properties …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455080
multiple stochastic volatility processes. The estimation is based on annual consumption data from 1929 to 1959, monthly … Bayesian estimation provides strong evidence for a small predictable component in consumption growth (even if asset return data … are omitted from the estimation). Three independent volatility processes capture different frequency dynamics; our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458363
We develop a new class of nonlinear time-series models to identify nonlinearities in the data and to evaluate nonlinear DSGE models. U.S. output growth and the federal funds rate display nonlinear conditional mean dynamics, while inflation and nominal wage growth feature conditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458969
estimation for DSGE models approximated up to third-order and provides the foundation for indirect inference and SMM when …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459679
We consider nonparametric identification and estimation in a nonseparable model where a continuous regressor of … endogenous assignment variable (like previous earnings). We provide new results on identification and estimation for these …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460096
regimes. We pay particular attention to the BBC and offer a new approach to parameter estimation by utilizing a three …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635607
This paper deals with the relationship between inflation targeting and exchange rates. I address three specific issues: first, I analyze the effectiveness of nominal exchange rates as shock absorbers in countries with inflation targeting. This issue is closely related to the magnitude of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466531
coefficients. The estimation is based on real-time data and accounts for the presence of heteroskedasticity in the policy shock …-sample estimation. In contrast to Orphanides (2002, 2003), I find that the Fed's response to the real-time forecast of inflation was …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467369