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The COVID-19 epidemic in emerging markets risks a combined health, economic, and debt crisis. We integrate a standard epidemiology model into a sovereign default model and study how default risk impacts the ability of these countries to respond to the epidemic. Lockdown policies are useful for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481857
In 1841 and 1842, eight states and the Territory of Florida defaulted on their sovereign debts. Traditional histories of the default crisis have stressed the causal role of the depression that began with the Panic of 1837, unexpected revenue shortfalls from canal and bank investments as a result...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467937
Nominal debt provides consumption-smoothing benefits if it can be inflated away during recessions. However, we document empirically that countries with more countercyclical inflation, where nominal debt provides better consumption-smoothing, issue more foreign-currency debt. We propose that...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456087
maturity. But at high levels of debt, a strong inverse relation emerges. We start the paper by documenting this inverse … of debt and maturity which can explain both sets of facts. It is based on the idea that, at high levels of debt, the … government may need to decrease the maturity of the debt as debt increases, in order to maintain the credibility of its anti …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475040
maturity in the event of crises, and show that both necessarily improve ex ante welfare if they do not decrease expected …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457880
maturity management, as will typically be required to address rollover crisis risk, will be delayed until the end of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458946
This paper studies the maturity and stream of payments of sovereign debt. Using Bloomberg bond data for eleven emerging … economies, we document that countries react to crises by issuing debt with shortened maturity but back-load payment schedules …. To account for this pattern, we develop a sovereign default model with an endogenous choice of debt maturity and payment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457770
Debt in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is at its highest level in half a century. In about nine out of 10 EMDEs, debt is higher now than it was in 2010 and, in half of the EMDEs, debt is more than 30 percentage points of gross domestic product higher. Historically, elevated...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012629486
This paper compares the equilibrium dynamics of an economy facing an aggregate collateral constraint on external debt to the dynamics of an economy facing a collateral constraint imposed at the level of each individual agent. The aggregate collateral constraint is intended to capture an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466408
This study quantitatively investigates the currency composition of sovereign debt in the presence of two types of limited enforcement frictions arising from a government's monetary and debt policy: strategic currency debasement and default on sovereign debt. Local currency debt obligations are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453049