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Causal Parameters and Policy Analysis in Economcs : A Twentieth Century Retrospective
Heckman, James L. - 1999
The major contributions of twentieth century econometrics to knowledge were the definition of causal parameters when agents are constrained by resources and markets and causes are interrelated, the analysis of what is required to recover causal parameters from data (the identification problem),...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471451
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Money And Income, Causality Detection
Hsiao, Cheng - 1977
In this paper we intend to survey and suggest the theoretical framework of the important aspects of causality detection with the purpose of conveying to the reader the essential features and the different forms in which inferences may be drawn from given data. Section II presents the basic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478962
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Dealing with Imperfect Randomization : Inference for the HighScope Perry Preschool Program
Heckman, James J.; Pinto, Rodrigo; Shaikh, Azeem M. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
This paper considers the problem of making inferences about the effects of a program on multiple outcomes when the assignment of treatment status is imperfectly randomized. By imperfect randomization we mean that treatment status is reassigned after an initial randomization on the basis of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014447303
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Identifying Government Spending Shocks : It's All in the Timing
Ramey, Valerie A. - 2009
Do shocks to government spending raise or lower consumption and real wages? Standard VAR identification approaches show a rise in these variables, whereas the Ramey-Shapiro narrative identification approach finds a fall. I show that a key difference in the approaches is the timing. Both...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463185
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News, Noise, and Fluctuations : An Empirical Exploration
Blanchard, Olivier J. - 2009
We explore empirically models of aggregate fluctuations with two basic ingredients: agents form anticipations about the future based on noisy sources of information; these anticipations affect spending and output in the short run. Our objective is to separate fluctuations due to actual changes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463634
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Explaining the Effects of Government Spending Shocks on Consumption and the Real Exchange Rate
Ravn, Morten O. - 2007
Using panel structural VAR analysis and quarterly data from four industrialized countries, we document that an increase in government purchases leads to an expansion in output and private consumption, a deterioration in the trade balance, and a depreciation of the real exchange rate (i.e., a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465322
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Money and Output : Friedman and Schwartz Revisited
Belongia, Michael T. - 2015
More than fifty years ago, Friedman and Schwartz examined historical data for the United States and found evidence of pro-cyclical movements in the money stock, which led corresponding movements in output. We find similar correlations in more recent data; these appear most clearly when Divisia...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456875
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Confidence and the Transmission of Government Spending Shocks
Bachmann, Ruediger - 2011
There seems to be a widespread belief among economists, policy-makers, and members of the media that the "confidence'" of households and businesses is a critical component in the transmission of fiscal policy shocks into economic activity. We take this proposition to the data using standard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461594
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Does Mentoring Increase the Collaboration Networks of Female Economists? An Evaluation of the CeMENT Randomized Trial
Ginther, Donna K.; Na, Rina - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
Previous research has shown that women in the treatment group of the CeMENT randomized controlled trial increased their publications and the likelihood that they were tenured in top 50 economics departments. This paper examines one potential mechanism, namely, that CeMENT expanded the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012510606
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Probabilistic Prediction for Binary Treatment Choice : with Focus on Personalized Medicine
Manski, Charles F. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021
This paper extends my research applying statistical decision theory to treatment choice with sample data, using maximum … in indirect ways, the former applying classical statistical theory and the latter measuring prediction accuracy in test … samples. Neither approach is satisfactory. Statistical decision theory provides a coherent, generally applicable methodology …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660036