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ECONIS (ZBW)
466
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466
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1
Expectations and Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys
Zarnowitz, Victor
-
1982
second part offers a comparative analysis of the individual
prediction
series from the NBER-ASA as well as some earlier … and autocorrelation of error. The marginal
forecast
errors tend to increase, and the correlations between predictions and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478266
Saved in:
2
Forecasting China's Economic Growth and Inflation
Higgins, Patrick
-
2016
models when measured by root mean square errors, especially over long-run
forecast
horizons. The model is shown to be capable …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456277
Saved in:
3
Dynamic
Prediction
Pools : An Investigation of Financial Frictions and Forecasting Performance
Del Negro, Marco
-
2014
We provide a novel methodology for estimating time-varying weights in linear
prediction
pools, which we call Dynamic … environment, leading to real-time
forecast
improvements relative to other methods of density
forecast
combination, such as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458090
Saved in:
4
Pandemic-Era Uncertainty
Meyer, Brent H.
;
Mihaylov, Emil
;
Barrero, Jose Maria
; …
-
National Bureau of Economic Research
-
2022
-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level uncertainty at a one-year
forecast
horizon doubled at the onset of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013191053
Saved in:
5
Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic
Schorfheide, Frank
;
Song, Dongho
-
National Bureau of Economic Research
-
2021
to the median
forecast
from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). While the MF-VAR performed poorly during 2020:Q …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794563
Saved in:
6
Counterfactuals, Forecasts, and Choice-Theoretic Modelling of Policy
Grossman, Herschel I.
-
1984
This paper focuses on the problem of formulating an analysis of economic policy that is consistent with rational expectations. Cooley, LeRoy,and Raymon show that the Lucas and Sargent strategy for econometric policy evaluation is itself vulnerable to the logic of the Lucas critique. The present...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477709
Saved in:
7
Consensus and Uncertainty in Economic
Prediction
Zarnowitz, Victor
-
1983
surveys provide unique informationon probabilistic
forecast
distributions reported by a large number of individuals for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477929
Saved in:
8
Rational Expectations and Macroeconomic Forecasts
Zarnowitz, Victor
-
1983
at the time of the
forecast
. The frequencies of significant auto-correlations among errors so measured vary greatly …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478033
Saved in:
9
The Accuracy of Individual and Group Forecasts from Business Outlook Surveys
Zarnowitz, Victor
-
1982
This paper reports on a comprehensive study of the distributions of summary measures of error for a large collection of quarterly multiperiod predictions of six variables representing inflation, real qrowth, unemployment,and percentage changes in nominal GNP and two of its more volatile...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478052
Saved in:
10
The Leading Indicator Approach to Economic Forecasting--Retrospect and Prospect
Klein, Philip A.
-
1982
For many years a system of leading, coincident, and lagging economic indicators, first developed in the 1930s by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), has been widely used in the United States to appraise the state of the business cycle. Since 1961 the current monthly figures for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478166
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