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Testing
Bergbauer, Annika B. - 2018
School systems regularly use student assessments for accountability purposes. But, as highlighted by our conceptual model, different configurations of assessment usage generate performance-conducive incentives of different strengths for different stakeholders in different school environments. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012452885
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Why Has U.S. Inflation Become Harder to Forecast?
Stock, James H. - 2006
Forecasts of the rate of price inflation play a central role in the formulation of monetary policy, and forecasting … inflation is a key job for economists at the Federal Reserve Board. This paper examines whether this job has become harder and …, to the extent that it has, what changes in the inflation process have made it so. The main finding is that the univariate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466341
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The Comovements Between Real Activity and Prices at Different Business Cycle Frequencies
Haan, Wouter J. Den - 1996
In this paper, I present two different methods that can be used to obtain a concise set of descriptive results about the comovement of variables. The statistics are easy to interpret and capture important information about the dynamics in the system that would be lost if one focused only on the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473303
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Implicit Estimates of Natural, Trend, and Cyclical Components of Real GNP
Nelson, Charles R. - 1987
Estimates of the natural or full employment level of real GNP have usually been obtained by statistical detrending procedures which assume independence between trend and cycle. This paper presents an alternative approach which says that the natural level should be measured in the context of a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476815
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The Elusive Costs of Inflation : Price Dispersion during the U.S. Great Inflation
Nakamura, Emi - 2016
A key policy question is: How high an inflation rate should central banks target? This depends crucially on the costs … of inflation. An important concern is that high inflation will lead to inefficient price dispersion. Workhorse New … Keynesian models imply that this cost of inflation is very large. An increase in steady state inflation from 0% to 10% yields a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456173
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Nonrenewable Resource Prices : Deterministic or Stochastic Trends?
Lee, Junsoo - 2005
In this paper we examine temporal properties of eleven natural resource real price series from 1870-1990 by employing a Lagrangian Multiplier unit root test that allows for two endogenously determined structural breaks with and without a quadratic trend. Contrary to previous research, we find...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467192
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Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit Root and Trend Break Hypothesis : Theory and International Evidence
Banerjee, Anindya - 1990
This paper investigates the possibility, raised by Perron (1989, 1990a), that aggregate economic time series can be characterized as being stationary around broken trend lines. Unlike Perron, we treat the break date as unknown a priori. Asymptotic distributions are developed for recursive,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475507
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Identification and Estimation of Dynamic Causal Effects in Macroeconomics Using External Instruments
Stock, James H. - 2018
, a one-step instrumental variables regression and a two-step method that entails estimation of a vector autoregression …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453497
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Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models
Campbell, John Y. - 1986
In a model where a variable Y[sub t] is proportional to the present value, with constant discount rate, of expected future values of a variable y[sub t] the "spread" S[sub t]= Y[sub t] - [theta sub t] will be stationary for some [theta] whether or not y[sub t]must be differenced to induce...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477190
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Behavioralize This! International Evidence on Autocorrelation Patterns of Stock Index and Futures Returns
Ahn, Dong-Hyun - 1999
autocorrelations close to zero, (ii) these autocorrelation differences between spot and futures markets are maintained even under … conditions favorable for spot-futures arbitrage, and (iii) these autocorrelation differences are most prevalent during low volume …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471575