Forecasts of the rate of price inflation play a central role in the formulation of monetary policy, and forecasting … inflation is a key job for economists at the Federal Reserve Board. This paper examines whether this job has become harder and …, to the extent that it has, what changes in the inflation process have made it so. The main finding is that the univariate …

the estimation of distributed lag relationships between them. Section B discusses time-aggregated sampling. In Section C …

A key policy question is: How high an inflation rate should central banks target? This depends crucially on the costs … of inflation. An important concern is that high inflation will lead to inefficient price dispersion. Workhorse New … Keynesian models imply that this cost of inflation is very large. An increase in steady state inflation from 0% to 10% yields a …

This paper argues that hysteresis helps explain the long-run behavior of unemployment. The natural rate of unemployment … hysteresis effects and present new evidence for 20 developed countries. A central finding is that large increases in the natural … rate are associated with disinflations, and large decreases with run-ups in inflation. These facts are consistent with …

) process with trend, focusing on the effects of sample size, forecast horizon, and degree of persistence. We show that …