Showing 1 - 10 of 6,333
volatility of economic fluctuations. In a sample of 92 countries as well as a sample of OECD countries, we find that countries … with higher volatility have lower growth. The addition of standard control variables strengthens the negative relationship …. We also find that government spending-induced volatility is negatively associated with growth even after controlling for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473940
Does macroeconomic volatility/uncertainty affects accumulation of net foreign assets? In OECD economies over the period … 1970-2012, changes in country specific aggregate volatility are, after controlling for a wide array of factors …, significantly positively associated with net foreign asset position. An increase in volatility (measured as the standard deviation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457794
the postwar period. To this end, we propose the estimation of DSGE models allowing for time variation in the volatility of …In this paper we investigate the sources of the important shifts in the volatility of U.S. macroeconomic variables in … the structural innovations. We apply our estimation strategy to a large-scale model of the business cycle and find that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466647
An increase in the household debt to GDP ratio in the medium run predicts lower subsequent GDP growth, higher unemployment, and negative growth forecasting errors in a panel of 30 countries from 1960 to 2012. Consistent with the "credit supply hypothesis," we show that low mortgage spreads...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457088
suffered most increases in output volatility as a result …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471355
This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output-the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457809
In a sample of 110 countries over the period 1960-2009, we document a positive relation between the volatility and … with recent theories of financial frictions. The positive relation between volatility and skewness in the cross-section is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460104
volatility and growth. We first develop a simple growth model where firms engage in two types of investment: a short-term one and …, thus mitigating volatility. But when firms face tight credit constraints, long-term investment turns procyclical, thus … amplifying volatility. Tighter credit therefore leads to both higher aggregate volatility and lower mean growth for a given total …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467334
GDP growth is often measured poorly for countries and rarely measured at all for cities or subnational regions. We propose a readily available proxy: satellite data on lights at night. We develop a statistical framework that uses lights growth to augment existing income growth measures, under...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463450
I use microeconomic estimates of the effect of health on individual outcomes to construct macroeconomic estimates of the proximate effect of health on GDP per capita. I employ avariety of methods to construct estimates of the return to health, which I combine with cross-country and historical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467224