Policymakers can take actions to prevent local conflict before it begins, if such violence can be accurately predicted …. We examine the two countries with the richest available sub-national data: Colombia and Indonesia. We assemble two … escalations of violence. "Best case" scenarios with panel data fall short of workable early-warning systems …

We propose a model of cycles of distrust and conflict. Overlapping generations of agents from two groups sequentially … a sequence of bad actions originated. Assuming that both sides are not extremists, spirals of distrust and conflict get … this mechanism can be useful in interpreting cycles of ethnic conflict and international war, and how it also emerges in …

We study the impact of plausibly exogenous global food price shocks on local violence across the African continent. In … food-producing areas, higher food prices reduce conflict over the control of territory (what we call "factor conflict") and … increase conflict over the appropriation of surplus ("output conflict"). We argue that this difference arises because higher …

many types of human conflict in the review, including both interpersonal conflict -- such as domestic violence, road rage …, assault, murder, and rape -- and intergroup conflict -- including riots, ethnic violence, land invasions, gang violence, civil …Until recently, neither climate nor conflict have been core areas of inquiry within economics, but there has been an …

extreme climate is associated with elevated risk of inter-group conflict, intra-personal violence, and self-harm. The …We survey the quantitative research literature linking climate and conflict, a body of research that spans multiple …

, appear especially likely to be exploited by the parties to a civil conflict. On the other hand, these resources may also … consequences of a major shift in the production of coca paste from Peru and Bolivia to Colombia, where most coca leaf is now … Colombia, provided an exogenous boost in the demand for Colombian coca leaf. Our analysis shows this shift generated economic …