Showing 1 - 10 of 398
We document a robust dynamic inconsistency in risky choice. Using a unique brokerage dataset and a series of experiments, we compare people's initial risk-taking plans to their subsequent decisions. Across settings, people accept risk as part of a "loss-exit" strategy--planning to continue...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014226107
We measure individual-level loss aversion using three incentivized, representative surveys of the U.S. population (combined N=3,000). We find that around 50% of the U.S. population is loss tolerant, with many participants accepting negative-expected-value gambles. This is counter to earlier...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334460
In many settings, decision-makers' behavior is observed to vary based on seemingly arbitrary factors. Such framing … permit either partial- or point-identification of preferences for the decision-makers who choose consistently across frames …. Recovering population preferences requires understanding the empirical relationship between decision-makers' preferences and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480791
The favorite-longshot bias describes the longstanding empirical regularity that betting odds provide biased estimates of the probability of a horse winning--longshots are overbet, while favorites are underbet. Neoclassical explanations of this phenomenon focus on rational gamblers who overbet...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462728
A central feature of dynamic collective decision-making is that the rules that govern the procedures for future … decision-making and the distribution of political power across players are determined by current decisions. For example … dynamic collective decision-making: (1) a social arrangement is made stable by the instability of alternative arrangements …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464416
not to be true there is no significant difference in average decision lags. Furthermore, and also surprisingly, there is … no significant difference in the decision lag when groups decisions are made by majority rule versus when they are made …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470828
in the future. We appeal to decision theory under risk, model ambiguity and misspecification concerns to provide an … into a low dimensional characterization that depends on the uncertainty aversion of a decision-maker or fictitious social …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012599354
Starting from Robbins (1952), the literature on experimentation via multi-armed bandits has wed exploration and exploitation. Nonetheless, in many applications, agents' exploration and exploitation need not be intertwined: a policymaker may assess new policies different than the status quo; an...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544703
We experimentally study unanimity and majority voting rules in multilateral bargaining environments with stochastic future surplus. In these settings, reaching agreement when expected future surplus is sufficiently higher than the current surplus is inefficient. Theoretically, such...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013388790
In this paper we study "investment tournaments," a class of decision problems that involve gradual allocation of … investment among several alternatives whose values are subject to exogenous shocks. The decision-maker's payoff is determined by … broad range of cases it is optimal for the decision-maker in each time period to allocate all resources to the most …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463514