unemployment rate Phillips curve, which is examined in a simulated out of sample forecasting framework. Inflation forecasts …This paper investigates forecasts of U.S. inflation at the 12-month horizon. The starting point is the conventional …

inflation. This paper fills this research gap by providing a replicable forecasting model that beats a host of other competing …Although macroeconomic forecasting forms an integral part of the policymaking process, there has been a serious lack of … models when measured by root mean square errors, especially over long-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable …

using the methodology of Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2015), which examines predictability of forecast errors from forecast … under-react to average forecaster news. To reconcile these findings, we combine the diagnostic expectations model of belief … forward looking nature of diagnostic expectations yields additional implications, which we also test and confirm. A structural …

widely-used income-side version GDPI . We propose and explore a "forecast combination" approach to combining them. We then …

inflation expectations forecast actual future inflation more accurately than nominal yields do. The estimated real interest rate …This paper estimates expected future real interest rates and inflation rates from observed prices of UK government …-linked bonds. It assumes that expected log returns on all bonds are equal, and that expected real interest rates and inflation …

consistent with rational expectations if inflation were not forecastable, and indeed univariate tests show little sign of serial … correlation in inflation. However, inflation was forecastable on the basis of lagged gold production. Investors' expectations of …We consider the puzzling behavior of interest rates and inflation in the United States and the United Kingdom between …

regressions have zero intercepts and unitary slope coefficients are very unfavorable to expectations of inflation, but they show … Association, has been collecting a large amount of information on the record of forecasting in the U. S. economy. This paper is a … progress report on a comprehensive study of the distribution of individual predictions from these surveys. It covers forecasts …

Pools, and use it to investigate the relative forecasting performance of DSGE models with and without financial frictions … for output growth and inflation from 1992 to 2011. We find strong evidence of time variation in the pool's weights … environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other methods of density forecast combination, such as …

serially correlated eventually adapt. Expectations of low inflation are associated with reduced uncertainty. The" results … distribution of expected future inflation. We evaluate the adequacy of" those density forecasts using the framework of Diebold … inflation including several deficiencies of the forecasts. The probability of a large negative inflation" shock is generally …

generated: 1) from time series of past inflation rates;2) by forecasting real rates from time series of past real rates and … expected inflation. To test this question two sets of inflation forecasts for the U.S. and five European countries were … subtracting these forecasts from nominal rates. The accuracy of the two sets of inflation forecasts was compared. The results …