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We develop a nonlinear state-space model that captures the joint dynamics of consumption, dividend growth, and asset … returns. Our model consists of an economy containing a common predictable component for consumption and dividend growth and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458363
Rare events (RE) and long-run risks (LRR) are complementary elements for understanding asset-pricing patterns, including the average equity premium and the volatility of equity returns. We construct a model with RE (temporary and permanent parts) and LRR (including stochastic volatility) and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456801
We propose a new framework for pricing assets, derived in part from the traditional consumption-based approach, but which also incorporates two long-standing ideas in psychology: prospect theory, and evidence on how prior outcomes affect risky choice. Consistent with prospect theory, the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471569
We empirically decompose the S&P 500's dividend yield into (1) a rational forecast of long-run real dividend growth, (2 …) the subjectively expected risk premium, and (3) residual mispricing attributed to the market's forecast of dividend growth …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468430
to obtain a term structure of expected dividend growth rates and a term structure of risk premia, which allows us to … decompose the equity risk premium by maturity. We find that both expected dividend growth rates and risk premia exhibit … substantial variation over time, particularly for short maturities. In addition to predicting dividend growth, equity yields help …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461242
distribution. We also find that households' consumption is significantly more responsive to dividend payouts across all parts of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453452
In the rare-disasters setting, a key determinant of the equity premium is the size distribution of macroeconomic disasters, gauged by proportionate declines in per capita consumption or GDP. The long-term national-accounts data for up to 36 countries provide a large sample of disaster events of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463402
We review a recent approach to understanding the equity premium puzzle. The key elements of this approach are loss aversion and narrow framing, two well-known features of decision-making under risk in experimental settings. In equilibrium, models that incorporate these ideas can generate a large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466287
We construct a price, dividend, and earnings series for the Industrials sector, the Utilities sector, and the Railroads …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458297
We analyze the supply-side disruptions associated with Covid-19 across firms and workers. To do so, we exploit differences in the ability of workers across industries to work remotely using data from the American Time Use Survey (ATUS). We find that sectors in which a higher fraction of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481524