common factors estimated from a large panel of data to help forecast the series of interest. This paper assesses the extent … to which the forecasts are influenced by (i) how the factors are estimated, and/or (ii) how the forecasts are formulated … method stands out to have smaller forecast errors. This method forecasts the series of interest directly, rather than the …

models when measured by root mean square errors, especially over long-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable …

environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other methods of density forecast combination, such as …

produce more radical forecasts. Since these more radical forecasts are in general less accurate, ex post forecast accuracy … factors are at work in professional macroeconomic forecasts …

forecasting the course of the U. S.economy (mostly economists, analysts, and executives from the world of corporate business and …

Association, has been collecting a large amount of information on the record of forecasting in the U. S. economy. This paper is a … and autocorrelation of error. The marginal forecast errors tend to increase, and the correlations between predictions and …

We propose a three-step factor-flows simulation-based approach to forecast the duration distribution of unemployment … individual duration dependence, factor structure, and an auxiliary forecast of the unemployment rate to simulate a panel of … individual labor force histories. Applying our approach to the July Blue Chip forecast of the COVID-19 recession, we project that …