covers multiple dimensions of the global economy consistently produces substantial improvements in forecast accuracy, while … for assessing the current and future state of the economy for a set of individual countries and groups of countries. We … use this indicator to track the evolution of the nowcasts for the US, the OECD area, and the world economy during the …

A forecasting comparison is undertaken in which 49 univariate forecasting methods, plus various forecast pooling … procedures, are used to forecast 215 U.S. monthly macroeconomic time series at three forecasting horizons over the period 1959 …

Association, has been collecting a large amount of information on the record of forecasting in the U. S. economy. This paper is a … and autocorrelation of error. The marginal forecast errors tend to increase, and the correlations between predictions and …

models when measured by root mean square errors, especially over long-run forecast horizons. The model is shown to be capable …

environment, leading to real-time forecast improvements relative to other methods of density forecast combination, such as …

synchronized with the Fed's Greenbook forecast. This dataset consists of a large number of variables, as observed at the time of … each Greenbook forecast since 1979. Thus, we can compare real-time large dataset predictions to both simple univariate … methods and to the Greenbook forecast. For inflation we find that univariate methods are dominated by the best atheoretical …