The covariance of asset returns with economic states of the world is a fundamental input to asset pricing models. Using a semi-annual survey of forecasts by a panel of U.S. economists over more than 70 years, we infer forecaster beliefs about covariance between the S&P index and macro-economic...

This paper tests the retrieved context model of Wachter and Kahana (2019) using a long-term panel of economic forecasts by participants in the Livingston Survey. Events in historical time contribute additional explanatory power to a relative time series model. Historical precedents for current...

Real and private-value assets--defined here as the sum of real estate, infrastructure, collectibles, and non-corporate business equity--is an investment class worth an estimated $85 trillion in the U.S. alone. Furthermore, private values can affect pricing in many other financial markets, such...

We find that procyclical stocks, whose returns comove with business cycles, earn higher average returns than countercyclical stocks. We use almost a three-quarter century of real GDP growth expectations from economists' surveys to determine forecasted economic states. This approach largely...

Over the past two decades, respondents to the Shiller Investor Confidence Surveys assess the probability of a catastrophic stock market crash to be much higher that the historical frequency of such events. We decompose these crash probabilities into fundamental and subjective components and use...

The financial press is a conduit for popular narratives that reflect collective memory about historical events. Some collective memories relate to major stock market crashes, and investors may rely on associated narratives, or "crash narratives," to inform current beliefs and choices. Using...

The origin of the modern publicly-held joint-stock company is typically traced to large-scale maritime trading companies in England and the Netherlands in the early 17th century. Highlighting medieval cases in southern Europe, we claim that the joint-stock company likely emerged in several times...

Using transaction data from a large non-fungible token (NFT) trading platform, this paper examines how the behavioral bias of selection-neglect interacts with extrapolative beliefs, accelerating the boom and delaying the crash in the recent NFT bubble. We show that the price-volume relationship...

This paper examines the contribution of Leonardo of Pisa [Fibonacci] to the history of financial mathematics. Evidence in Leonardo's Liber Abaci (1202) suggests that he was the first to develop present value analysis for comparing the economic value of alternative contractual cash flows. He also...

History is important to the study of financial bubbles precisely because they are extremely rare events, but history can be misleading. The rarity of bubbles in the historical record makes the sample size for inference small. Restricting attention to crashes that followed a large increase in...