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Matched transaction-level, credit-registry, and survey-based data reveal that consumers on average form excessively high (low) income expectations relative to ex-post realizations after unexpected positive (negative) income shocks. These extrapolative income expectations lead consumers to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635678
information is symmetrically distributed and the scoring bias is set to offset the initial asymmetry between players …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247957
Forecast errors for inflation decline monotonically with both verbal and quantitative IQ in a large and representative male population. Within individuals, inflation expectations and perceptions are autocorrelated only for men above the median by IQ (high-IQ men). High-IQ men's forecast...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479452
Welfare Economics. A key theme of Cognitive Economics is finite cognition (often misleadingly called "bounded rationality …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457832
estimating the privacy elasticity of public-good contributions in a lab experiment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334433
The favorite-longshot bias describes the longstanding empirical regularity that betting odds provide biased estimates … misperceptions of probability drive the favorite-longshot bias, as suggested by Prospect Theory …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462728
numerical cognition, and test its ability to explain the choice frequencies that we observe in a laboratory experiment … imprecise (and noisy) mental representation of the decision situation. In this model, risk aversion is predicted without any … need for a nonlinear utility-of-wealth function, and instead results from a sort of perceptual bias -- but one that …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455387
design an experiment that treats the two goods (a mug and a pen) symmetrically in all but in the probabilities with which … they are expected to be owned. Thus, our "endowmentless" endowment effect experiment shuts down all alternative mechanisms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461942
What explains the mixed evidence from laboratory tests of Kőszegi and Rabin's (2006 and later) model of expectations-based reference-dependent preferences? We investigate one hypothesis: to become (behavior-affecting) reference points, probability beliefs have to sink in--being merely lagged,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012452999
We conduct a survey experiment with a large, politically representative sample of U.S. consumers (5,205 participants …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015094913