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Assessing the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is essential for policymakers, but challenging because the crisis has unfolded with extreme speed. We identify three indicators - stock market volatility, newspaper-based economic uncertainty, and subjective uncertainty in business...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481939
This paper develops a decision-theoretic approach to policy analysis. We argue that policy evaluation should be conducted on the basis of two factors: the policymaker's preferences, and the conditional distribution of the outcomes of interest given a policy and available information. From this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468673
The extraordinary events surrounding the Great Recession have cast a considerable doubt on the traditional sources of macroeconomic instability. In their place, economists have singled out financial and uncertainty shocks as potentially important drivers of economic fluctuations. Empirically...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456616
their risk assessments and outcomes to those from a simple methodology that relies on publicly available market data and … market data; (iii) This discrepancy arises due to the reliance on regulatory risk weights in determining required levels of … capital once stress-test losses are taken into account. In particular, the continued reliance on regulatory risk weights in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459694
We examine the effect of uncertainty on foreign direct investment inflows for a heterogeneous sample of advanced, emerging market and developing countries over a 25 year long (pre-Covid) sample. Using a push-pull framework, and controlling for both global and local factors, we find policy...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012814462
The paper tests three hypotheses concerning foreign equity investment in the presence of liquidity risk. First, the FDI …-to-FPI price differential is negatively related to liquidity risk (the "Price Discount Hypothesis"). The idea is that market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462005
Disparity between control and ownership rights gives rise to the risk of tunneling by the controlling shareholder, and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464925
-averse entrepreneurs discount using a 'hurdle rate' that exceeds the risk-free interest rate. The gap between the two rates increases with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473852
's vulnerability to periods of heightened risk and uncertainty. This paper develops a framework to evaluate such vulnerabilities. It … they are affected by domestic and global risk shocks, and apply this framework to 10 OECD economies. These examples …, including a more detailed assessment for the UK, show that a substantial degree of international risk sharing can occur through …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455939
We study the role of idiosyncratic income shocks for aggregate fluctuations within a simple heterogeneous household framework with no binding borrowing constraints. We show that the presence of idiosyncratic income shocks affects the economy's response to an aggregate shock in a way that can be...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012814479