Showing 1 - 10 of 5,904
valuation of disaster risk. Focusing on media discourse addresses the challenge of sample size even when major disasters are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287305
activity and outperform---especially at longer horizons---standard default-risk indicators. Much of the predictive power of … bond spreads for economic activity is embedded in securities issued by intermediate-risk rather than high-risk firms …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463785
We establish an empirical link between the ex-ante uncertainty about macroeconomic fundamentals and the ex-post resolution of this uncertainty in financial markets. We measure macroeconomic uncertainty using prices of economic derivatives and relate this measure to changes in implied...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466398
increase in total volatility led to a significant increase in market risk (beta) for the multinational firms relative to the … the relation between exchange rate variability and stock return volatility and by decomposing this relation into … components of systematic and diversifiable risk. Focusing on two periods around the 1973 switch from fixed to floating exchange …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473547
the joint dynamics of its volatility and Sharpe ratio as functions of yield curve variables, and of VIX in the US. We have … volatility is as important as time variation in bond Sharpe ratios. (3) Bond risk premia are solely compensation for bond risk …Studies of the dynamics of bond risk premia that do not account for the corresponding dynamics of bond risk are hard to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482660
We propose an approach to measuring the state of the economy via textual analysis of business news. From the full text of 800,000 Wall Street Journal articles for 1984-2017, we estimate a topic model that summarizes business news into interpretable topical themes and quantifies the proportion of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012660022
uncertainty. The results dictate the role of uncertainty and volatility in structural models and we show they are consistent with … a simple extension of the long-run risk model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480268
shocks using methods from the news shocks literature, the analysis finds that innovations in realized stock market volatility … economy. Moreover, investors have historically paid large premia to hedge shocks to realized but not implied volatility. A … model in which fundamental shocks are skewed left can match those facts. Aggregate volatility matters, but it is the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453915
their empirical counterparts. Our findings suggest that time-varying disaster risk and the many types of uncertainty shocks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456293
Dynamic economic models make predictions about impulse responses that characterize how macroeconomic processes respond to alternative shocks over different horizons. From the perspective of asset pricing, impulse responses quantify the exposure of macroeconomic processes and other cash flows to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456312