Showing 1 - 10 of 4,585
a key determinant of risk premia at all investment horizons. As the investment horizon increases, transitory risks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465546
uncertainty is time-varying, and (2) countries have heterogeneous exposures to a world aggregate shock. We embed these features in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461380
This paper measures the effects of the risk of war on nine U.S. financial variables using a heteroskedasticity …-based estimation technique. The results indicate that increases in the risk of war cause declines in Treasury yields and equity prices …, a widening of lower-grade corporate spreads, a fall in the dollar, and a rise in oil prices. This war risk factor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469089
correlations with developed countries' equity markets significantly reduces the unconditional portfolio risk of a world investor …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474313
We propose a latent variables approach within a present-value model to estimate the expected returns and expected dividend growth rates of the aggregate stock market. This approach aggregates information contained in the history of price-dividend ratios and dividend growth rates to predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462393
We use traded options on growth and value indices to test for clientele differences in risk preferences. Value … investors appear to have exhibited a higher average level of risk aversion than growth investors for two different time periods … with different levels of risk-aversion to switch between investment styles conditional upon the evolution of returns and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463317
Human beings want to believe that good outcomes in the future are more likely, but also want to make good decisions that increase average outcomes in the future. We consider a general equilibrium model with complete markets and show that when investors hold beliefs that optimally balance these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465716
We study the asset pricing implications of Tversky and Kahneman's (1992) cumulative prospect theory, with particular focus on its probability weighting component. Our main result, derived from a novel equilibrium with non-unique global optima, is that, in contrast to the prediction of a standard...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465720
We study the predictive power of approximately 2.5 million stock picks submitted by individual users to the "CAPS" website run by the Motley Fool company (www.caps.fool.com). These picks prove to be surprisingly informative about future stock prices. Indeed, a strategy of shorting stocks with a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461359
a stochastic growth model for 40 vulnerable countries and project welfare effects of climate-driven cyclone risk changes … into macroeconomic climate-economy models. This paper proposes a joint empirical-structural approach to bridge this gap for …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480548