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The Leading Indicator Approach to Economic Forecasting--Retrospect and Prospect

Klein, Philip A. - 1982

briefly the theory and rationale underlying this approach to economic forecasting, describe the more important statistical …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478166

Technology and Big Data Are Changing Economics : Mining Text to Track Methods

Currie, Janet - 2020

of administrative records or by using (as we do) new methods of data generation such as text mining are now common. New …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479239

Combining Family History and Machine Learning to Link Historical Records

Price, Joseph - 2019

A key challenge for research on many questions in the social sciences is that it is difficult to link historical records in a way that allows investigators to observe people at different points in their life or across generations. In this paper, we develop a new approach that relies on millions...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480171

Big Data in Finance

Goldstein, Itay; Spatt, Chester S.; Ye, Mao - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2021

Big data is revolutionizing the finance industry and has the potential to significantly shape future research in finance. This special issue contains articles following the 2019 NBER/ RFS conference on big data. In this Introduction to the special issue, we define the "Big Data" phenomenon as a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012496169

The Billion Prices Project : Using Online Prices for Measurement and Research

Cavallo, Alberto - 2016

New data-gathering techniques, often referred to as "Big Data" have the potential to improve statistics and empirical research in economics. In this paper we describe our work with online data at the Billion Prices Project at MIT and discuss key lessons for both inflation measurement and some...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456563

Text Selection

Kelly, Bryan T. - 2019

Text data is ultra-high dimensional, which makes machine learning techniques indispensable for textual analysis. Text … develop an economically motivated high dimensional selection model that improves learning from text (and from sparse counts … newspaper text, and that it substantially improves out-of-sample fit relative to alternative approaches …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480461

Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

Bianchi, Francesco - 2020

This paper combines a data rich environment with a machine learning algorithm to provide new estimates of time-varying systematic expectational errors ("belief distortions") embedded in survey responses. We find that distortions are large on average even for professional forecasters, with all...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481601

Forecasting with the Index of Leading Indicators

Vaccara, Beatrice N. - 1978

The composite index of leading indicators is found to be a valuable tool for predicting not only the direction but also the size of near- term changes in aggregate economic activity. This conclusion is based on assessments of the leading index as a predictor of (1) business cycle turning points...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478899

Predicting U.S. Recessions : Financial Variables as Leading Indicators

Estrella, Arturo - 1995

This article examines the performance of various financial variables as predictors of subsequent U.S. recessions. Series such as interest rates and spreads, stock prices, currencies, and monetary aggregates are evaluated singly and in comparison with other financial and non-financial indicators....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473488

A Procedure for Predicting Recessions With Leading Indicators : Econometric Issues and Recent Experience

Stock, James H. - 1992

This paper examines the forecasting performance of various leading economic indicators and composite indexes since 1988 …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012474966

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