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We develop a new class of nonlinear time-series models to identify nonlinearities in the data and to evaluate nonlinear DSGE models. U.S. output growth and the federal funds rate display nonlinear conditional mean dynamics, while inflation and nominal wage growth feature conditional...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458969
estimation for DSGE models approximated up to third-order and provides the foundation for indirect inference and SMM when …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459679
panel data to estimate the textbook 'expectations augmented' Phillips curve with a market-based and observable measure of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471456
distributed lag relationships based on single time-series of observations have been usually rather imprecise. The promise of panel … which are, at least in part, testable, and outline appropriate estimation techniques. The first places reasonable …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478174
This study presents a general methodology for fitting multiple time series models to panel data. The basic statistical … panel data, and it identifies those instances in which procedures found in the time series literature cannot be directly … applied to analyze longitudinal data. Data analysis techniques in the tine series literature are adapted for panel data …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478475
This paper examines the question of whether less-developed countries' (LDCs') experiences with foreign direct investment (FDI) systematically different from those of developed countries (DCs). We do this by examining three types of empirical FDI studies that typically do not distinguish between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468315
be reliably estimated, and when panel data on household demands is available, one can construct a second …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457183
We model the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns as a latent vector autoregressive (VAR) process to study the contemporaneous and intertemporal relationship between expected returns and risk in a flexible statistical framework and without relying on exogenous predictors. We find a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469657
Volatility permeates modern financial theories and decision making processes. As such, accurate measures and good forecasts of future volatility are critical for the implementation and evaluation of asset pricing theories. In response to this, a voluminous literature has emerged for modeling the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472795
We consider the problem of short-term time series forecasting (nowcasting) when there are more possible predictors than observations. Our approach combines three Bayesian techniques: Kalman filtering, spike-and-slab regression, and model averaging. We illustrate this approach using search engine...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459094