constructed by only controlling for the staff forecasts imply responses of macro variables at odds with theory. We directly link …

inflation, building on our earlier work for the United States. Globally, as in the United States, pandemic-era inflation was due … bank inflation targets. As the effects of supply shocks have subsided, tight labor markets, and the rises in nominal wages …, have become relatively more important sources of inflation in many countries. In several countries, including the United …

Post-covid inflation was predominantly driven by unexpectedly strong demand forces, not only in the United States, but … inflation near its 2-percent target---would have severely hampered an already anaemic recovery …

We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …

Amidst the recent resurgence of inflation, this paper investigates the interplay of corporate profits and income … distribution in shaping inflation and aggregate demand within the New Keynesian framework. We derive a novel analytical condition …-demand fluctuations and inflation to be amplified by heterogeneity, profits have to be countercyclical--an implication that is at odds …

study the consequences of unexpected inflation on the labor market. The slow and costly adjustment of real wages within a … match after a burst of inflation incentivizes workers to engage in job-to-job transitions. Such dynamics after a surge in … inflation lead to a rise in aggregate vacancies relative to unemployment, associating a seemingly tight labor market with lower …

lower inflation uncertainty, higher idiosyncratic demand uncertainty, and less elastic demand. Quantitatively, our theory …

Blanchard (2022) highlights in his analysis of near-term inflation pressures. The amenity-values gains associated with the …