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Biased Surveys
Valchev, Rosen; Gemmi, Luca - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We find evidence suggesting that surveys of professional forecasters are biased by strategic incentives. First, we find that individual forecasts overreact to idiosyncratic information but underreact to common information. Second, we show that this bias is not present in forecasts data that is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337840
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Nowcasting World Trade with Machine Learning : a Three-Step Approach
Chinn, Menzie David; Meunier, Baptiste; Stumpner, Sebastian - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We nowcast world trade using machine learning, distinguishing between tree-based methods (random forest, gradient boosting) and their regression-based counterparts (macroeconomic random forest, gradient linear boosting). While much less used in the literature, the latter are found to outperform...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322806
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Risky Oil : It's All in the Tails
Baumeister, Christiane; Huber, Florian; Marcellino, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
The substantial fluctuations in oil prices in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have highlighted the importance of tail events in the global market for crude oil which call for careful risk assessment. In this paper we focus on forecasting tail risks in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544801
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What Do Long Data Tell Us About the Inflation Hike Post COVID-19 Pandemic?
Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie; Uribe, Martín - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
To what extent is the recent spike in inflation driven by a change in its permanent component? We estimate a semi …-structural model of output, inflation, and the nominal interest rate in the United States over the period 1900-2021. The model predicts … that between 2019 and 2021 the permanent component of inflation rose by 51 basis points. If instead we estimate the model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362011
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The Dominant Role of Expectations and Broad-Based Supply Shocks in Driving Inflation
Beaudry, Paul; Hou, Chenyu; Portier, Franck - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
explaining bouts of inflation. We begin by showing that a quasi-flat Phillips curve, which was popular prior to the pandemic …, still fits the post-2020 US data well and that changes in short term inflation expectations induced by supply shocks likely … played a major role in the recent inflation episode. We then document features of the joint dynamics of inflation and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014528362
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Filtering with Limited Information
Drautzburg, Thorsten; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We propose a new tool to filter non-linear dynamic models that does not require the researcher to specify the model fully and can be implemented without solving the model. If two conditions are satisfied, we can use a flexible statistical model and a known measurement equation to back out the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635717
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Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle
Bianchi, Francesco; Nicolò, Giovanni; Song, Dongho - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We study the relation between inflation and real activity over the business cycle. We employ a Trend-Cycle VAR model to … control for low-frequency movements in inflation, unemployment, and growth that are pervasive in the post-WWII period. We show … that cyclical fluctuations of inflation are related to cyclical movements in real activity and unemployment, in line with …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014247995
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U.S. Growth in the Decade Ahead
Feldstein, Martin S. - 2010
Not all of that extra output will remain in the United States. If the trade deficit is reduced by three percent of GDP, the rise in exports and decline in imports will reduce output available for U.S. consumption and investment by about 0.3 percent a year
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462967
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Near-Rational Equilibria in Heterogeneous-Agent Models : A Verification Method
Kogan, Leonid; Mitra, Indrajit - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
We propose a general simulation-based procedure for estimating quality of approximate policies in heterogeneous-agent equilibrium models, which allows to verify that such approximate solutions describe a near-rational equilibrium. Our procedure endows agents with superior knowledge of the future...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334330
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The Predictive Power of the Term Spread and Financial Variables for Economic Activity across Countries
Chinn, Menzie David; Ferrara, Laurent - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
In recent years, there has been renewed interest in the moments of the yield curve (or alternatively, the term spread) as a predictor of future economic activity, defined as either recessions, or industrial production growth. In this paper, we re-examine the evidence for this predictor for the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014468283