We study hand-collected data on firms' perceptions of their cost of capital. Firms with higher perceived cost of capital earn higher returns on invested capital and invest less, suggesting that the perceived cost of capital shapes long-run capital allocation. The perceived cost of capital is...

We introduce FDIF, a measure of Fed communication surprise based on the text of FOMC statements. FDIF measures the difference between text-implied and actual values of key market variables. Positive FDIF of countercyclical variables (e.g., credit spreads) is associated with negative...

We formulate a quantitative dynamic equilibrium theory of trade in the fed funds market, calibrate it to fit a comprehensive set of marketwide and micro-level cross-sectional observations, and use it to make two contributions to the operational side of monetary policy implementation. First, we...

Using text from 200 million pages of 13,000 US local newspapers and machine learning methods, we construct a 170-year-long measure of economic sentiment at the country and state levels, that expands existing measures in both the time series (by more than a century) and the cross-section. Our...

We provide evidence on the role of fairness for tax compliance: households are willing to pay more in taxes if they believe that other households are contributing their fair share. We conducted an information-disclosure natural field experiment in the context of property taxes in the United...

Children spend years in foster care, and there are concerns that bureaucratic hurdles contribute to unnecessarily long stays. In a novel approach to policy making, the Chilean government randomized the introduction of a program aimed at reducing these delays in order to evaluate its effects on...

The present study examines the assumptions, modeling structure, and preliminary results of DICE-2023, the revised Dynamic Integrated Model of Climate and the Economy (DICE), updated to 2023. The revision contains major changes in the carbon and climate modules, the treatment of non-industrial...

We analyze the financial performance of a hypothetical portfolio of 120 mRNA vaccine candidates in the preclinical stage targeting 11 emerging infectious diseases. We calibrate the simulation parameters with input from domain experts in mRNA technology and an extensive literature review. We find...

This paper quantifies and decomposes recent trends in U.S. PM2.5 disparities from the electricity sector using a high-resolution pollution transport model. Between 2000-2018, PM2.5 concentrations from electricity fell by 89% for the average individual, more than double the decline rate in...

The United States spends substantially more on health care than most developed countries, yet leaves a greater share of the population uninsured. We suggest that incremental insurance expansions focused on addressing market failures will propagate inefficiencies and are not likely to facilitate...