Showing 1 - 10 of 1,080
We formalize the GATT/WTO principle of reciprocity in workhorse quantitative trade models, characterizing reciprocal tariff cuts that hold terms of trade fixed and investigating their labor-market impacts. We provide closed-form expressions mapping reciprocal tariff cuts to labor market...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015056161
We review theoretical and empirical work on the economic effects of the United States and China trade relations during the last decades. We first discuss the origins of the China shock, its measurement, and present methods used to study its economic effects on different outcomes. We then focus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013361989
We estimate the impact of trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on CES import price indices, focusing on the implications of Britain's exit from the European Union (Brexit). Our analysis reveals that an increase in the probability of Brexit increases U.K. import price indices by raising the prices of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337833
This paper shows that volatility induces adverse first order welfare effects in countries excluded from the global … volatility. We identify the parameters determining the magnitude of the loss -- it is proportional to the autocorrelation of … shocks, to volatility (as measured by the standard deviation of shocks), and to the degree of product differentiation (as …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473636
This paper proposes a new mechanism by which country size and international trade affect macroeconomic volatility. We … firms have an impact on aggregate output volatility. We explore the quantitative properties of the model calibrated to data … for the 50 largest economies in the world. Smaller countries have fewer firms, and thus higher volatility. The model …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461323
Recent trends suggest the world economy may be tending towards an equilibrium with two distinct trading blocs, each internally integrated, but with significant isolation between the blocs. This paper uses a quantitative theory to explore how far this bifurcation would need to go to pose a threat...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322792
We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model of foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign technology adoption, incorporating adoption barriers, international technology spillover, and relative price advantages. A higher FDI conversion efficacy, a lower adoption barrier, or a stronger...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250176
This paper analyzes frameworks for the design of the rules for international trading, assuming that it is possible to have some rule of law. In the Arrow-Debreu benchmark, where there is no economic power and political power is seemingly irrelevant, there is no need for trade agreements - free...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576561
We use the 2018-2019 U.S. trade war to examine how supply chains adjustments to a tariff cost shock affect imports and exports. Using confidential firm-trade linked data, we show that the decline in imports of tariffed goods was driven by discontinuations of U.S. buyer-foreign supplier...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337835
We use the dynamics of U.S. imports across goods in the period around the U.S.-China trade war with a model of exporter dynamics to estimate the dynamic path of the probability of transiting between Normal Trade Relations and a trade war state. We find (i) there was no increase in the likelihood...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014486241