Showing 1 - 10 of 5,433
If commercial producers or financial investors use futures contracts to hedge against commodity price risk, the … arbitrageurs who take the other side of the contracts may receive compensation for their assumption of nondiversifiable risk in the … structure to commodity futures prices, and develop new algorithms for estimation of such models using unbalanced data sets in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459606
The financialization view is that increased trading in commodity futures markets is associated with increases in the growth rate and volatility of commodity spot prices. This view gained credence because in the 2000s trading volume increased sharply and many commodity prices rose and became more...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453945
This paper develops a decision-theoretic approach to policy analysis. We argue that policy evaluation should be conducted on the basis of two factors: the policymaker's preferences, and the conditional distribution of the outcomes of interest given a policy and available information. From this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012468673
Network, established in 2012, brings together researchers from around the world with access to micro-level data on individual … studies conducted in eleven countries to explore liquidity risk transmission. Among the main results is, first, that … explanatory power of the empirical model is higher for domestic lending than for international lending. Second, how liquidity risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458364
A growing body of evidence suggests that uncertainty is counter cyclical, rising sharply in recessions and falling in booms. But what is the causal relationship between uncertainty and growth? To identify this we construct cross country panel data on stock market levels and volatility as proxies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459187
climate change although toward the low end. In any given year a small likelihood exists that the world will again suffer a … since 1700, could lead to 2 million or more excess deaths. World Bank and other work has assessed the probable income loss … risk, a value that GNI fails to capture. In this paper we use findings from that literature to generate an estimate of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456538
the VIX causing the risk to flow to commercial hedgers. By exploiting a cross-section of traders, we provide micro …-level evidence for a convective flow of risk from distressed financial traders to the ultimate producers of commodities in the real …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460735
The behavioral finance literature cites the frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) futures market as a prominent example of the failure of prices to reflect fundamentals. This paper reexamines the relation between FCOJ futures returns and fundamentals, focusing primarily on temperature. We show...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469188
Despite widespread application of real options theory in the literature, the extent to which firms actually delay irreversible investments following an increase in the uncertainty of their environment is not empirically well-known. This paper estimates firms' responsiveness to changes in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462116
, noting that according to a simple model of futures arbitrage, if index-fund buying influences prices by changing the risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458772