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macro factors are still important in fitting bond return volatility; whereas the "variance premium" is critical in …We study the economic sources of stock-bond return comovements and its time variation using a dynamic factor model. We … stock and bond return correlations, but that other factors, especially liquidity proxies, play a more important role. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463390
Value stocks have higher exposure to innovations in the nominal bond risk premium, which measures the markets … when nominal bond risk premia are low and declining, are associated with lower future dividend growth rates on value minus … growth and with lower future output growth in the short term. Because of this new nexus between stock and bond returns, a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462964
We examine empirically how the maturity structure of government debt affects bond yields and excess returns. Our …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464841
From a macroeconomic perspective, the short-term interest rate is a policy instrument under the direct control of the central bank. From a finance perspective, long rates are risk-adjusted averages of expected future short rates. Thus, as illustrated by much recent research, a joint...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012467596
We decompose the returns differential between U.S. portfolio claims and liabilities into the composition, return, and timing effects. Our most striking and robust finding is that foreigners exhibit poor timing when reallocating between bonds and equities within their U.S. portfolios. The poor...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463572
Using a panel of international government bond data, I construct fixed income portfolios that match the duration of the … dividend strips of the corresponding local aggregate stock market index. I find that these bond portfolios have performed as …) levels of volatility. These results provide a novel perspective on both the equity risk premium and excess volatility puzzles …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481562
and bond returns into changes in expectations of future stock dividends, inflation, short-term real interest rates, and … about future excess stock returns, while excess 10-year bond returns are driven largely by news about future inflation. Real … interest rate changes have little impact on either stock or 10-year bond returns, although they do affect the short …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475245
a regime-switching model and find evidence for the existence of a high volatility regime, in which returns are more …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471745
-of-sample volatility of optimized portfolios from each model. A few factors capture the general covariance structure but adding more … yield similar results. Using a tracking error volatility criterion, larger differences appear, with particularly favorable …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471761
formulate and examine precise and separate measures of return spillovers and volatility spillovers. Our framework facilitates … evidence of divergent behavior in the dynamics of return spillovers vs. volatility spillovers: Return spillovers display a … gently increasing trend but no bursts, whereas volatility spillovers display no trend but clear bursts …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464836