Showing 61 - 70 of 4,256
We use our identification results to develop a sequential estimation algorithm for the joint dynamic process of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456235
This paper explores whether affine models with volatility jumps estimated on intradaily S&P 500 futures data over 1983-2008 can capture major daily outliers such as the 1987 stock market crash. I find that intradaily jumps in futures prices are typically small, and that self-exciting but...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456646
We propose a Bayesian factor analysis model to rank the health of localities. Mortality and morbidity variables empirically contribute to the resulting rank, and population and spatial correlation are incorporated into a measure of uncertainty. We use county-level data from Texas and Wisconsin...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459212
We construct factors from a cross section of exchange rates and use the idiosyncratic deviations from the factors to forecast. In a stylized data generating process, we show that such forecasts can be effective even if there is essentially no serial correlation in the univariate exchange rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460277
This paper formulates and estimates multistage production functions for children's cognitive and noncognitive skills. Skills are determined by parental environments and investments at different stages of childhood. We estimate the elasticity of substitution between investments in one period and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462910
We construct size and value factors in China. The size factor excludes the smallest 30% of firms, which are companies valued significantly as potential shells in reverse mergers that circumvent tight IPO constraints. The value factor is based on the earnings-price ratio, which subsumes the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453256
We develop a measure of a regime's tolerance for an action by its citizens. We ground our measure in an economic model and apply it to the setting of political protest. In the model, a regime anticipating a protest can take a costly action to repress it. We define the regime's tolerance as the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013334386
method unifies non-parametric curve estimation with cross-sectional factor modeling. We identify smoothness as a fundamental … risk premia of the term structure of excess returns. Cash flows are covariances as the exposure of bonds to factors is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544750
We propose a statistical model of differences in beliefs in which heterogeneous investors are represented as different machine learning model specifications. Each investor forms return forecasts from their own specific model using data inputs that are available to all investors. We measure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337816
Recently there has been a great deal of interest in studying monetary policy under model uncertainty. We point out that different assumptions about the uncertainty may result in drastically different robust' policy recommendations. Therefore, we develop new methods to analyze uncertainty about...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469134