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Brazil has had a long period of high inflation. It peaked around 100 percent per year in 1964, decreased until the … first oil shock (1973), but accelerated again afterward, reaching levels above 100 percent on average between 1980 and 1994 … crisis in the early 1980s. We show that the high-inflation period (1960-1994) was characterized by a combination of fiscal …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479377
After the economic reforms that followed the National Revolution of the 1950s, Bolivia seemed positioned for sustained growth. Indeed, it achieved unprecedented growth from 1960 to 1977. The rapid accumulation of debt due to persistent deficits and a fixed exchange rate policy during the 1970s...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479478
socially desirable. I consider an environment with dispersed information and two aggregate shocks: a productivity shock and a … "news shock" which affects aggregate beliefs. Neither the central bank nor individual agents can distinguish the two shocks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465758
to which the leading shock candidates can explain fluctuations in output and hours. It concludes that we are much closer …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456695
does not tighten monetary policy. Imported energy inflation can spill over to wage inflation through a wage-price spiral …, but this does not mitigate the decline in real wages. Monetary tightening has limited effect on imported inflation when … demand. Fiscal policy, especially energy price subsidies, can isolate individual energy importers from the shock, but it has …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337777
Our current inflation stemmed from a fiscal shock. The Fed is slow to react. Why? Will the Fed's slow reaction spur … high real interest rates. Price stickiness means inflation will persist past an initial shock. To reduce inflation, fiscal … more inflation? I write a simple model that encompasses the Fed's mild projections and its slow reaction, and traditional …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210124
What accounts for inflation after 2008? We use the prominent pre-crisis Smets-Wouters (2007) model to address this … question. We find that due to price markup shocks alone inflation would have been 1% higher than observed and 0.5% higher that … responsible for the slow recovery of employment, though not for the initial drop. Monetary policy shocks predict an inflation rate …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012457959
external instruments produce responses in output and inflation consistent with both textbook theory and conventional monetary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458442
We develop a novel method for the identification of monetary policy shocks. By applying natural language processing techniques to documents that Federal Reserve staff prepare in advance of policy decisions, we capture the Fed's information set. Using machine learning techniques, we then predict...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544696
appointment of Volcker marked a change in the conduct of monetary policy, but inflation dropped only when fiscal policy … accommodated this change two years later. In fact, a disinflationary attempt of the monetary authority leads to more inflation if … been confident about the switch, the Great Inflation would not have occurred and debt would have been higher. This is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458470