We develop measures of time-varying risk aversion and economic uncertainty that are calculated from financial variables …

, while the time span of the data remains fixed, and the cross-sectional dimension is fixed or increasing. We derive a Central … Limit Theorem (CLT) for the cross-sectional beta dispersion at a point in time, enabling us to test whether this quantity … beta dispersion, as a function of time-of-day, changes across days. We extend this further by developing inference …

rates predictable? This paper proposes an answer to these questions based on a time-varying probability of a consumption … disaster. In the model, aggregate consumption follows a normal distribution with low volatility most of the time, but with some … the equity premium, while time-variation in the probability of this outcome drives high stock market volatility and excess …

As illustrated in the tale of "the dog that did not bark," the absence of news and the passage of time often contain … after merger announcement, the passage of time is informative about the probability that the merger will ultimately complete … consistent with a behavioral model of underreaction to the passage of time and cannot be explained by changes in risk or …

unlikely to be stable. This paper documents the time variation in the responses of yield curves and exchange rates using high … frequency data from January 2000 through August 2011. Significant time variation in news effects is present for those … announcements that have the largest effects on asset prices. The time variation in effects is explained by economic conditions …

model forecast errors over time and across countries. We conclude with investment implications, where shocks to systematic …

-grade corporate bonds. The predictive power of war discourse increases in more recent time periods …