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Two centuries ago, in most countries around the world, women were unable to vote, had no say over their own children or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013462666
In this paper we show that temperature is an aggregate risk factor that adversely affects economic growth. Our argument … temperature (i.e., temperature betas) contains sharp information about the cross-country risk premium; countries closer to the … Equator carry a positive temperature risk premium which decreases as one moves farther away from the Equator. The differences …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461083
We reconsider the empirical links between volatility and growth between 1970 and 2007. There is a strong and significant correlation between individual country growth rates and global factors that are arguably exogenous with respect to their economies. The amount of volatility driven by these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463424
We provide new estimates of the importance of growth rate and uncertainty shocks for developed countries. The shocks we estimate are large and correspond to well-known macroeconomic episodes such as the Great Moderation and the productivity slowdown. We compare our results to earlier estimates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460531
A growing body of evidence suggests that uncertainty is counter cyclical, rising sharply in recessions and falling in booms. But what is the causal relationship between uncertainty and growth? To identify this we construct cross country panel data on stock market levels and volatility as proxies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459187
We analyze the pattern of growth of a nation which borrows abroad and which has the option of repudiating its foreign debt. We show that the equilibrium strategy of competitive lenders is to make the growth of the foreign debt contingent on the growth of the borrowing country. We give a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477377
I characterize a dynamic economy under general distributions of households' risk tolerance, endowments, and beliefs … consumption-share increases; (b) the wealth-share of high risk-tolerant households increases; (c) richer households' wealth … risk sharing. Higher uncertainty increases stock prices, risk premiums, volatility, wealth inequality and the dispersion of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012479404
accounts for the interaction between temperature, economic growth and risk. The model simultaneously matches the projected … temperature path, the observed consumption growth dynamics, discount rates provided by the risk-free rate and equity market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455671
account for the risk premia and asset price fluctuations. In addition, the model can empirically account for the cross …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465457
This paper documents several facts on the real effects of economic uncertainty. First, higher uncertainty is associated with a more dispersed distribution of output growth. Second, the relation is highly asymmetric: A rise in uncertainty is associated with a sharp decline in the lower tail of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482243