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accounts for the interaction between temperature, economic growth and risk. The model simultaneously matches the projected … temperature path, the observed consumption growth dynamics, discount rates provided by the risk-free rate and equity market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012455671
Two centuries ago, in most countries around the world, women were unable to vote, had no say over their own children or …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013462666
We provide the planner's solution to a model where households learn from exogenous natural disaster arrivals about arrival rates and spend to mitigate future damages. Mitigation cannot be decentralized due to positive externalities from curtailing aggregate risks. First-best can be implemented...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482023
This paper documents several facts on the real effects of economic uncertainty. First, higher uncertainty is associated with a more dispersed distribution of output growth. Second, the relation is highly asymmetric: A rise in uncertainty is associated with a sharp decline in the lower tail of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012482243
We reconsider the empirical links between volatility and growth between 1970 and 2007. There is a strong and significant correlation between individual country growth rates and global factors that are arguably exogenous with respect to their economies. The amount of volatility driven by these...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012463424
A growing body of evidence suggests that uncertainty is counter cyclical, rising sharply in recessions and falling in booms. But what is the causal relationship between uncertainty and growth? To identify this we construct cross country panel data on stock market levels and volatility as proxies...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459187
In this paper we show that temperature is an aggregate risk factor that adversely affects economic growth. Our argument … temperature (i.e., temperature betas) contains sharp information about the cross-country risk premium; countries closer to the … Equator carry a positive temperature risk premium which decreases as one moves farther away from the Equator. The differences …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461083
A basic prediction of effcient risk-sharing is that relative consumption growth rates across countries or regions …, employing a newly constructed multi-country and multi-regional data set. Within countries, we find signifcant evidence for risk …. We identify this failure of risk sharing as a border effect. We find that the border effect is substantially (but not …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461369
) bilateral exports to the United States. The patterns in the data are consistent with the theory. The mean and the variance of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014226112
because the former allows risk sharing across countries while the latter does not. The analysis is performed in a two …-country overlapping generations model, where markets are incomplete under either exchange regime. In this second best world, it is … demonstrated that the ability to share risk across countries in the fixed rate regime does not necessarily lead to higher welfare …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478269