We ask two questions related to how access to credit affects the nature of business cycles. First, does the standard theory of unsecured credit account for the high volatility and procyclicality of credit and the high volatility and countercyclicality of bankruptcy filings found in U.S. data?...

This paper investigates the impact of lower mortgage rates on household balance sheets and other economic outcomes during the housing crisis. We use proprietary loan-level panel data matched to consumer credit records using borrowers' Social Security numbers, which allows for accurate...

We run a field experiment and a survey experiment to study an active choice nudge. Our nudge is designed to reduce the anchoring of credit card payments to the minimum payment. In our field experiment, the nudge reduces enrollment in Autopaying the minimum from 36.9% to 9.6%. However, the nudge...

Digital technologies and fintech firms have rapidly reshaped the consumer financial landscape in recent years, and have the potential to help consumers make better decisions and improve their financial health. Existing technologies such as autopay are also experiencing increased takeup, a trend...

This paper examines how personal bankruptcy and bankruptcy exemptions affect the supply and demand for credit. While generous state-level bankruptcy exemptions are probably viewed by most policymakers as benefitting less-well-off borrowers, our results using data from the 1983 Survey of Consumer...

The use of high cost "payday loans" among subprime borrowers has generated substantial concern among policymakers. This paper provides the first evidence of substitution between "alternative" and "traditional" credit by exploiting an unexpected positive shock to traditional credit access among...

We analyze the information content of the digital footprint - information that people leave online simply by accessing or registering on a website - for predicting consumer default. Using more than 250,000 observations, we show that even simple, easily accessible variables from the digital...

Every major financial crisis leaves its unique footprint on economic thought. The early banking crises taught us the importance of financial sector liquidity and the lender of last resort. The Great Depression highlighted the devastating effects of bank failures and the need for counter-cyclical...

This paper examines how filing for bankruptcy under Chapter 13 helps financially distressed debtors save their homes. We develop a model of debtors' decisions to default on their mortgages and file for bankruptcy under Chapter 13 and evaluate the model using new data on Chapter 13 bankruptcy...

Personal bankruptcies in the United States have increased dramatically, rising from 1.4 per thousand working age population in 1970 to 8.5 in 2002. We use a heterogeneous agent life-cycle model with competitive financial intermediaries who can observe households' earnings, age and current asset...