Building on evidence that lifetime experiences shape individuals' macroeconomic expectations, we study asset prices in an economy in which a representative agent learns with fading memory about unconditional mean endowment growth. With IID fundamentals, constant risk aversion, and memory decay...

We show that the stock market price reaction to monetary policy surprises upon announcements of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is explained mostly by changes in the default-free term structure of yields, not by changes in the equity premium. We reach this conclusion based on a new...

Treasury bills and other near-money assets provide owners with liquidity service benefits that are reflected in prices in the form of a liquidity premium. I relate time variation in this liquidity premium to changes in the opportunity cost of money: The liquidity service benefits of near-money...

I review recent research efforts in the area of empirical cross-sectional asset pricing. I start by summarizing the evidence on cross-sectional return predictability and the failure of standard (consumption) CAPM models and their conditional versions to explain these predictability patterns. One...

The returns of short-term reversal strategies in equity markets can be interpreted as a proxy for the returns from liquidity provision. Analysis of reversal strategies shows that the expected return from liquidity provision is strongly time-varying and highly predictable with the VIX index....

Return prediction with Random Fourier Features (RFF)--a very large number, P , of nonlinear trans-formations of a small number, K, of predictor variables--has become popular recently. Surprisingly, this approach appears to yield a successful out-of-sample stock market index timing strategy even...

Modern investors face a high-dimensional prediction problem: thousands of observable variables are potentially relevant for forecasting. We reassess the conventional wisdom on market efficiency in light of this fact. In our model economy, which resembles a typical machine learning setting, N...

Motivated by the observation that survey expectations of stock returns are inconsistent with rational return expectations under real-world probabilities, we investigate whether alternative expectations hypotheses entertained in the asset pricing literature are consistent with the survey...

Data used in this study were provided by the Louisiana Office of Juvenile Justice. Access was provided by Louisiana State University. We thank Janet Currie, Kevin Lang, Adriana Lleras-Muney, Bentley Macleod, Marco Gonzalez-Navarro, Isaac Sorkin and the participants of the 6th Economics of...

We use mutual fund manager data from the technology bubble to examine the hypothesis that inexperienced investors play a role in the formation of asset price bubbles. Using age as a proxy for managers' investment experience, we find that around the peak of the technology bubble, mutual funds run...