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valuation of disaster risk. Focusing on media discourse addresses the challenge of sample size even when major disasters are …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014287305
We study sovereign external debt crises over the past 200 years, with a focus on creditor losses, or "haircuts". Our sample covers 327 sovereign debt restructurings with external private creditors over 205 default spells since 1815. Creditor losses vary widely (from none to 100%), but the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014576628
In line with Keynes' intuition, volatility in the stock market and in real economic activity are linked by expectations of long term profits. We show that analysts' optimism about the long term earnings growth of S&P 500 firms is associated with a near term boom in major US financial markets,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014337811
We characterize how risk evolves during a crisis. Using high-frequency data, we find that the first two principal … different, the risk dynamics share remarkably common features: PC1 shocks come solely from asset volatility, while PC2 shocks …, we provide novel identification of risk dynamics by linking these changes to news about the virus and epidemiological …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014635656
for the observed behavior of the stockmarket? Second, how risk averse are investors in the aggregate?We find that the … less so. Estimates of the index of relative risk aversion are obtained that put that parameter in the range of 3 to 4 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012477153
We present a new model of asset prices in which investors evaluate risk according to prospect theory and examine its …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481738
of the other variables. Our relations are useful for understanding the risk-return trade-off, as well as characterizing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012465813
We establish an empirical link between the ex-ante uncertainty about macroeconomic fundamentals and the ex-post resolution of this uncertainty in financial markets. We measure macroeconomic uncertainty using prices of economic derivatives and relate this measure to changes in implied...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012466398
: (1) financial crisis is unlikely to happen in the near future, and (2) the ultimate risk lies with China's economic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453483
A financial crisis is an event of sudden information acquisition about the collateral backing short-term debt in credit markets. When investors see a financial crisis coming, however, they react by more intensively acquiring information about firms in stock markets, revealing those that are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481696