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A Discrimination Report Card
Kline, Patrick; Rose, Evan K.; Walters, Christopher R. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
We develop an empirical Bayes ranking procedure that assigns ordinal grades to noisy measurements, balancing the information content of the assigned grades against the expected frequency of ranking errors. Applying the method to a massive correspondence experiment, we grade the race and gender...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014528353
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A Flexible Model of Food Security : Estimation and Implications for Prediction
Davis, Will; Xilau, Jose O.; Tchernis, Rusty; Gregory, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
features. It produces continuous food security estimates and measures of estimation uncertainty at the household level. Unlike … latent trait estimation. We observe overlap in BGRM estimates across USDA-defined food security categories and significant …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544738
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Sample Selection Bias As a Specification Error (with an Application to the Estimation of Labor Supply Functions)
Heckman, James J. - 1977
In this paper, I present a simple characterization of the sample selection bias problem that is also applicable to the conceptually distinct econometric problems that arise from truncated samples and from models with limited dependent variables. The problem of sample selection bias is fit within...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012478957
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Risky Oil : It's All in the Tails
Baumeister, Christiane; Huber, Florian; Marcellino, … - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2024
The substantial fluctuations in oil prices in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine have highlighted the importance of tail events in the global market for crude oil which call for careful risk assessment. In this paper we focus on forecasting tail risks in the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014544801
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Breaks in the Phillips Curve : Evidence from Panel Data
Smith, Simon C.; Timmermann, Allan; Wright, Jonathan H. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
We revisit time-variation in the Phillips curve, applying new Bayesian panel methods with breakpoints to US and European Union disaggregate data. Our approach allows us to accurately estimate both the number and timing of breaks in the Phillips curve. It further allows us to determine the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014250170
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Methods for Measuring School Effectiveness
Angrist, Joshua D.; Hull, Peter; Walters, Christopher R. - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
Many personal and policy decisions turn on perceptions of school effectiveness, defined here as the causal effect of attendance at a particular school or set of schools on student test scores and other outcomes. Widely-disseminated school ratings frameworks compare average student achievement...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013477275
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Sparse Modeling Under Grouped Heterogeneity with an Application to Asset Pricing
Cong, Lin William; Feng, Guanhao; He, Jingyu; Li, Junye - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2023
Sparse models, though long preferred and pursued by social scientists, can be ineffective or unstable relative to large models, for example, in economic predictions (Giannone et al., 2021). To achieve sparsity for economic interpretation while exploiting big data for superior empirical...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014322811
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To Hold Out or Not to Hold Out
Schorfheide, Frank - 2013
: randomized controlled trials (RCT) and structural estimation. The RCT provides a "gold-standard'' estimate of a particular … treatment, but only of that treatment. Structural estimation provides the capability to extrapolate beyond the experimental … out from the structural estimation exercise either the treatment or control sample allows for external validation of the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012459096
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Differentiable State-Space Models and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo Estimation
Childers, David; Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús; Perla, Jesse - National Bureau of Economic Research - 2022
-Gaussian DSGE models by sampling the joint likelihood of parameters and latent states. We show that the gradient-based joint … likelihood sampling approach is superior in efficiency and robustness to standard Metropolis-Hastings samplers by estimating a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013435135
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Using Samples of Unequal Length in Generalized Method of Moments Estimation
Lynch, Anthony W. - 2008
estimation methods, based on the generalized method of moments (GMM), which make use of all available data for each moment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012464236