Showing 1 - 10 of 1,545
The United States achieved a 2.0 percent average annual growth rate of real GDP per capita between 1891 and 2007. This paper predicts that growth in the 25 to 40 years after 2007 will be much slower, particularly for the great majority of the population. Future growth will be 1.3 percent per...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012458768
Uncertainty in both financial markets and the real economy rises sharply during recessions. We develop a model of informational interdependence between financial markets and the real economy, linking uncertainty to information production and aggregate economic activities. We argue that there...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012480637
We study how changes in the value of the steady-state real interest rate affect the optimal inflation target, both in the U.S. and the euro area, using an estimated New Keynesian DSGE model that incorporates the zero (or effective) lower bound on the nominal interest rate. We find that this...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012453386
In most modern macroeconomic models, the steady state (or balanced growth path) of the system is a local attractor, in the sense that, in the absence of shocks, the economy would converge to the steady state. In this paper, we examine whether the time series behavior of macroeconomic aggregates...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012456400
In China, local governments have actively contributed to the growth of new firms. In Russia, local governments have … question then is why this has not happened in China. We argue that the answer lies in the degree of political centralization … present in China, but not in Russia. Transition in China has taken place under the tight control of the communist party. As a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471154
The path of income inequality in post-reform China has been widely interpreted as "China's Kuznets curve." We show that … agrarian policy reforms. Our findings warn against any presumption that the Kuznets process will assure that China has passed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012616646
distribution of R&D and TFP growth in China during the period 2007--2012. The estimated model fits the Chinese data well. We …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012481599
take this classic question to the data by measuring the spillover e¤ects of China's productivity growth. Our framework … the spillover e¤ects of China's productivity growth are small causing the real incomes of China's trading partners to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461879
human capital to China's economic growth. The results indicate that human capital plays a much more important role in China … enrollment in China increased nearly fivefold between 1997 and 2007) while growth rates of GDP are little changed over the period … that there have been decreased in the efficiency of inputs usage in China or worsened misallocation of physical and human …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462065
best, particularly in comparison with that of China. Comparing these countries and reviewing the literature, we conclude … gained from trade, and by some measures, more so than China. We sketch out a theory in which developing countries can grow … continuing reforms, Chinese growth is likely to slow down sharply, perhaps leaving China at a level less than Mexico's real GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012462077